Ratings Agencies Make it Tough on European Leaders

The European leaders were battling a pretty major storm that the ratings agencies helped create late last week when S&P cut the ratings on 9 euro-region countries. The most dramatic move was the loss of France’s AAA rating, leaving Germany as the sole AAA rated country in the currency union. Austria also lost its AAA rating while Italy and Spain fell by two notches and Portugal’s debt was cut to junk status. The ratings of Malta, Cyprus, Slovakia, and Slovenia were also lowered.

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Existing Home Sales: Up or Down?

The markets will be getting thin today, and will be super light tomorrow as most of the traders take some time off for the holidays. These thin markets can be volatile, as any moves are exaggerated by the lack of volume in the markets. We have lots of data hitting the markets today, which could be the spark for some real action, so it may get interesting.

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Euro Rallies on Positive IFO Index and a Successful Spanish Debt Auction

The euro (EUR) sure enjoyed a better night rebounding from close to its annual low versus the US dollar. A surprisingly upbeat IFO business climate index combined with a pledge of more funds for the bailout and a positive Spanish auction to send the common currency higher. The IFO Institute’s index, based on a survey of 7,000 German business executives, rose to a three-month high of 107.2 from 106.6 in November. Economists had expected the index to drop to 106. November’s number had surprised on the upside also, so this month’s value certainly seems to confirm a trend that indicates Germany’s economy may be able to push through the credit crisis to remain on a solid growth path.

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Kim Jong Il’s Death Sends a Shiver Across the Markets

The markets are starting off the week on a bad note, as the death of North Korea’s ‘Dear Leader’ Kim Jong Il has investors moving back into safe havens. North Korean state television announced that the leader had died of a heart attack, spurring concern that a nuclear armed nation is without a leader. The government called on North Koreans to ‘loyally follow’ Kim Jong Un, one of Kim Jong Il’s sons. The South Korean won tumbled over 5% after the news, but seems to have hit a bottom in early European trading. Most of the other major currencies are also down a bit versus the US dollar which is still seen as the best safe haven.

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Weekly Jobs Data is Positive, Pushing the Dollar Lower

As mentioned in yesterday’s Pfennig, we had a long list of data released yesterday, and most of the numbers indicated that the US economy may be picking up a bit of steam. Producer prices came in right where they were expected, increasing 0.3% MOM and 5.7% YOY. The ‘core’ figure, (ex food and energy) is the one the Feds monitor and both showed modest increases over last month. The biggest surprise came in the form of the Empire Manufacturing number which came in at 9.53 on December versus 3.00 last month. This number reflects manufacturing activity in the NY region, but has a history of being very volatile and therefore an unreliable indicator of future manufacturing growth.

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Central Banks Pump Dollar Liquidity into the Markets

The dollar continued on its decline through most of the trading day yesterday, but fell off a cliff in very early European trading. A coordinated central bank action to lower swap rates was the reason for the dramatic moves in the currencies this morning. The FED, ECB, BOJ, SNB, BOC, and BOE all agreed to cut the cost of providing dollar funding via swap arrangements. They also agreed to make other currencies available as needed, but the primary function of these swap arrangements was to push more dollar liquidity into the markets. Swap agreements give the banks US dollars today for euros or other currency payments at some future date. It effectively pumps fresh US dollars into the markets which will be pulled back out at some point in the future. The move was seen as necessary in order to prop up the European banks which have been hard hit by the euro financial crisis. The additional liquidity was welcomed by the markets, with the European stock markets and early US markets up nicely.

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Confidence in the EU Helps Rally the Markets

Good day… Chuck felt it was best to sit out one more day as he tries to recover from a major cold he came down with late last week. He wanted me to share a few of his thoughts with the Pfennig readers this morning, so I’ll start right off with them. Take it away Chuck…

Here are some observations from the cheap seats, where I sit on I.R.

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EU Pushes for a More Perfect Fiscal Union

The news wires are all about Europe again this morning. The euro (EUR) has picked up some of the ground it lost versus the US dollar last week on speculation European leaders will be able to agree to take some additional steps to stem the region’s debt crisis. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble pushed for changes to the EU treaty which will tighten fiscal requirements. I really don’t think the EU will need to make any changes to the treaty, but should simply push countries to adhere to the fiscal standards required in the existing EU treaty.

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US Jobless Claims Hit 500,000

The dollar was still stuck in a rut through most of yesterday's trading, in spite of a weekly jobs report that showed jobless claims climbed to 500,000. But Bundesbank head Alex Weber dropped a bomb on the markets late yesterday and sent the euro (EUR) running for cover. The euro has fallen over one cent in early trading and is in danger of losing the $1.27 handle for the first time in a month. More on the euro in a sec, but first let's review the jobs data, which dominated the news yesterday.

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