Good day. The dollar traded in a fairly tight range most of the day, holding on to earlier gains. But just after lunch, sentiment shifted and the dollar started to drop, closing U.S. trading below the level it opened. And the fall accelerated as Asian traders entered the markets, pushing the euro (EUR) back above $1.335 and Aussie (AUD) over $1.04.
[Read more...]Data Show the US Recovery Isn’t Strong
March 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. The dollar maintained its stronger tone yesterday, in spite of durable goods data, which came in slightly lower than predicted. Durable goods orders for February increased 2.2% versus last month’s revised 3.6% drop, and the ex-transportation number was up 1.6% versus a revised drop of 3% last month. Neither of these numbers met economist’s expectations, but the revision of last month’s numbers apparently offset this month’s failure to live up to expectations. MBA mortgage applications were down 2.7%, better than last month’s drop of 7.4%.
[Read more...]US House Prices in the Hit a New Post-Crisis Low
March 28, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. The dollar rebounded from three straight days of declines yesterday as data released in the U.S. increased investors’ worries about the recovery here in the U.S. The Case-Shiller Home Price Index released yesterday morning showed U.S. home prices are now at the lowest level since the U.S. financial crisis began. Prices have yet to find a bottom, as huge bank inventories of foreclosed homes continue to keep prices down. Economists had predicted the fall, and most believe the housing market will plateau sometime this year before beginning a sluggish recovery.
[Read more...]Bernanke Jawbones the Equity Markets Higher
March 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. The dollar fell against many of the higher-yielding currencies yesterday following a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, which the markets interpreted as signaling Fed policies will remain accommodative for some time. Investors have been linking the more-positive U.S. data, including a steadily improving labor market, with concern that the Fed’s policymakers would have to retract their January statement that U.S. monetary policy would remain “exceptionally accommodative.”
[Read more...]Housing Data Show an Uncertain Recovery Here in the US
March 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. What a weekend here in St. Louis. I spent a majority of it outside, and we even ate dinner last night out on our deck, something that is not normal during the month of March. I enjoyed the scent of my wife’s lilac bushes as I was sitting outside last night, reading up on the currency markets. The research pointed to poor housing data Friday morning as the reason for the drop in the US dollar on Friday.
[Read more...]Gold Demand Drops as Indian Jewelers Close in Protest
March 21, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The currency markets were fairly calm yesterday, with the dollar pretty much unchanged from the levels I reported in yesterday’s Pfennig. There really wasn’t much new information to push the dollar one way or the other, and the news scrolling on the currency trading screens mainly rehashed concerns over China’s slowdown.
[Read more...]Dollar Declines, Then Reverses Course This Morning
March 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. It was a warm walk across the bridge this morning, hard to believe we have temperatures in the mid-80s so early in the year. We usually get some odd days during March, which bring the temperatures up, but this summerlike weather has stayed for most of the month. It has certainly faked the plants out, as they are leafing out well ahead of schedule. Today, we will start to see if the nice weather we have had across the country has helped the housing industry. At least one Fed head is saying the warm weather is partially responsible for some of the recent gains we have seen in the economic data.
[Read more...]Dollar Drops After US Inflation Slows Slightly
March 19, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Friday morning saw the dollar giving back more of the gains it had booked early last week and the greenback ended the week a bit weaker than it started. The CPI numbers were what sparked Friday’s selling, as the CPI came in a bit lower than forecasts. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in February, with just a 0.1% increase in the ‘core’ number (Ex. Food & Energy). The YOY gain was identical to the January reading at 2.9%, and the Core YOY figure was a bit lower at 2.2%. Apparently some of the currency traders felt these numbers may force the Fed to rethink their stimulus plans. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had indicated there would not be a need for another round of quantitative easing during the past few weeks, but the benign inflation data may indicate our economic recovery is in need of some additional fuel.
[Read more...]
Jobs Data Push Speculators Out of the Market
Good day, and welcome to another week. Chuck finally made it back home last night, after speaking at two different conferences last week down in Florida. We had a pretty wicked night of thunderstorms last night, so I’m sure Chuck’s flight wasn’t exactly smooth. Sure hope he got over that stomach thing that he had on Friday.
[Read more...]