Bar Stool Wisdom from São Paulo

“One cannot overestimate the importance of that hotel bar,” says veteran journalist Mort Rosenblum in his handbook for foreign correspondents, Little Bunch of Madmen: Elements of Global Reporting.

The basic idea is that local intelligence has a remarkable tendency to collect in little pools in hotel bars where travelers and locals mix. You can learn a lot on a bar stool talking to a local or even chatting with another traveler just blowing through who you might not get otherwise.

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Bar Stool Wisdom from São Paulo

“One cannot overestimate the importance of that hotel bar,” says veteran journalist Mort Rosenblum in his handbook for foreign correspondents, Little Bunch of Madmen: Elements of Global Reporting.

The basic idea is that local intelligence has a remarkable tendency to collect in little pools in hotel bars where travelers and locals mix. You can learn a lot on a bar stool talking to a local or even chatting with another traveler just blowing through who you might not get otherwise.

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The Missing 13th Floor

“About eight years ago, I was going down the elevator of a hotel in Las Vegas with a friend of mine,” Arnaud Karsenti told me. “The elevator skipped the 13th floor. And my friend said to me, ‘How come there is no 13th floor? What a bunch of wasted space!’”

The lack of a 13th floor comes from the same fear that prevents people from walking under ladders or causes them to shiver when a black cat crosses their path. But Arnaud decided to make a business out of it. The idea is to find value where others fear to go.

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A New Trend “Sneaking up on People”

China has lost its edge.

There was lots of skepticism about a piece in my March letter called “The Great Comeback No One Will Believe”  about the revival of U.S. manufacturing as China loses its cost advantage. But I continue to find evidence that the piece was spot on.

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Thoughts While Sitting in Chilean Traffic

Sometimes good investment ideas are stupidly obvious.

I recently read about Mark Lightbown, who used to run the Genesis Chile Fund. Author John Train described him as a quirky and well-mannered Englishman who traveled with a shopping bag full of his effects, on the theory that no airline would ever make him check it.

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The Art of Selling Stocks

I got a question from a self-described “loyal reader” of Capital & Crisis. I began to answer it, and my response turned into a mini-treatise on the art of selling stocks. Here is the question:

“Chris: I see a remarkable contradiction in your latest issue of Capital & Crisis. At the outset, you extol the virtues of [the successful investor Thomas] Phelps, who was an advocate of buy right and hold long, with the rest of your strategies, which seem based on sell half, take profits, and let the rest run. As you publish the bookkeeping on how long you have to stay in on an initial investment, undisturbed, to make a big profit at a given rate of return, why not make an equal effort to bookkeep what happens to your initial investment and final returns when you take half out every time it doubles? Let’s see what it makes you or costs you to do it that way. It seems to me that the take-profits approach is an admission of a lack of confidence in self or the company, but somehow feels like falling down stairs every time you almost reach the top.”

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Doing What Wall Street Doesn’t

Last year, I was at a dinner with a bunch of fertilizer analysts from Wall Street and Toronto. To my right was a guy who was really getting on my nerves:

Annoying analyst: We have PotashCorp at overweight. We believe with the structural deficit in potash that —

Me (interrupting): I have a sell on it and dropped coverage.

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The Biggest Fire Sale in History

It’s going to be the biggest fire sale in history — and it begins in 2012.

Europe’s banking sector holds 2½ times as many assets as the U.S. banking sector. It’s huge. And it’s in big trouble. Europe’s banking sector needs cash — mountains of cash.

As a result, it will have to sell more than $1.8 trillion of assets, which will likely take a decade to work through. For perspective, it sold only $97 billion from 2003–10. “The list of asset sales is the longest I’ve seen in 10 years,” says Richard Thompson, a partner at PricewaterhouseCoopers in London. Knowing how these things work, the final tally could well be double that. The world has never seen anything this big before.

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Made in America…Again!

One of the great things about markets is how they are always changing. They never cease to surprise. But the market, as sly as it is, sometimes tips its hand.

While killing some time at the JFK airport a couple weeks ago, I grabbed a copy of Bloomberg Markets magazine and perused it over breakfast. There was one story that struck me titled “Time to Head Home for Some Manufacturers.” The basic gist is that American manufacturing is more competitive than most people think.

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