Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Everyone knows that when the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin, the horse into mice and the jeweled gown into rags. The spell is broken and reality returns. I keep thinking of China in this context.
One of the big questions of the year is whether China blows up or not. Hard landing or soft? When will the clock strike midnight on the Chinese? Things are slowing down, and it feels like it’s getting late.
[Read more...]“Ow!” I yelled. It felt as if a sharp needle had plunged into my leg. I looked down, but found nothing. “Something bit me…” I muttered. As I brushed my leg, I felt another painful sting, this one on my pinkie finger. “Ow! What was that!?” Now with pinkie and leg throbbing, I could still see nothing.
[Read more...]It hasn’t been an easy environment to invest in. Fundamentals seem not to mean anything. The market paints with a super broad and emotional brush. Everything seems to go up and down at the same time.
It’s fascinating to see how people cope with the volatility. Their choices and behavior lead to some very odd market price constellations.
[Read more...]GlobalPost is an online news organization dedicated to the idea of “ground truth.” It’s a simple concept. Say you have a satellite image. And then you send a person there to verify it. The latter is ground truth. It is a person on the ground, making a firsthand observation. GlobalPost has adopted this concept as its mission.
[Read more...]In the midst of the news about the EU crisis, it’s worth pointing out that oil prices have quietly crept back over $100 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate is $102 as I write. Brent crude, which many argue is the more important figure, is $111. This is remarkable given how weak the global economic recovery has been.
[Read more...]Say what you will about John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). However loathed (or loved) as an economist, he was, undeniably, a great investor. Keynes (pronounced “canes”) piloted the endowment fund of King’s College through the dark years of the Great Depression. He steered the fund to 10-fold gains, excluding income (which the college spent).
[Read more...]I was in Bangkok while the floods were raging. I also visited Cambodia. The floods were in the news there as well. Though it did not affect Phnom Penh, where I was, the remote villages were dealing with a lot of water.
That’s the curious thing about water. There always seems to be either too much of it or not enough. What follows is another look at my favorite commodity and the opportunities of investing in it.
[Read more...]“I just want to stop and make sure we’re not on fire,” Brad said as we pulled over.
My friend Brad Farquhar is the co-founder and vice president of Assiniboia Capital, which invests in farmland. We had just driven through a canola farm some 50 miles outside of Regina, Saskatchewan. And apparently, the canola crop can get sucked in the car engine and cause a fire.
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The Most Common and Costly Investment Mistake
I’d like to tell you about a study I read recently.
It’s a slim little booklet titled One-Way Pockets by Don Guyon (a pen name for a broker). The book, which was first published in 1917, covers some studies he did on the trading behavior of accounts at the time. What he found was timeless.
[Read more...]