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Lose the News

March 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Today’s topic is “the news.” Specifically, how consuming it can turn your brain into soft cheese and make you a lousy thinker and investor.

I think the message here is important — and potentially life-changing. Does it sound like I am exaggerating? Hang in there and keep reading. You tell me what you think after you’ve read what I’ve got here.

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The Great Comeback No One Will Believe

February 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Something surprising stirs in the US economy. Something no mainstream pundit would’ve dared predict. Something most people probably won’t believe.

US manufacturing is staging a comeback.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of earth-moving equipment, gave us some tangible confirmation in the latest earnings roundup. Based on the business it sees, Cat expects US construction spending will increase in 2012 for the first time since 2004. And Eaton, another large industrial, followed that up by saying it expects its markets to grow faster in the US in 2012 than anywhere else. If it plays out that way, it would be the first time since the mid-2000s that the US led the way.

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The Next Big Story in Asia

February 28, 2012 By Leave a Comment

“It’s like Thailand was 50 years ago,” Alexandre de Lesseps told me. We were talking about the next big emerging market to bloom in Asia. It may surprise you, but it is one heck of a story… and opportunity. It also fits our grand thesis on emerging markets and is the subject of my upcoming book, World Right Side Up. The country I’m talking about is Myanmar (or Burma, as most people still seem to call it).

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Moneyball Investing: A Simple Way to Beat the Market

February 13, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The key dilemma around Moneyball, the book by Michael Lewis and the movie based on it (I recommend both), is pretty simple.

The New York Yankees had a payroll of $126 million in 2002. The Oakland A’s had a payroll of only $40 million. How does an underfunded, outgunned outfit like the A’s compete with the Yankees? As A’s General Manager Billy Beane puts it in the movie: “There are rich teams, and there are poor teams. Then there’s 50 feet of crap. And then there’s us.”

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The Value of a Thief

February 8, 2012 By Leave a Comment

“Every human problem is an investment opportunity if you can anticipate the solution,” the old gentleman told me. “If not for thieves, who would buy locks?”

I just met this remarkable fellow, full of wisdom on investing, yet hardly known beyond a small group of fans. His name is Thomas Phelps, and he’s had quite a career. He was The Wall Street Journal’s Washington bureau chief, a former editor of Barron’s, a partner at a brokerage firm, the head of the research department at a Fortune 500 company and, finally, a partner at Scudder, Stevens & Clark (since bought out by Deutsche Bank). Phelps retired in Nantucket after a varied 42-year career in markets.

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The Most Common and Costly Investment Mistake

January 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment

I’d like to tell you about a study I read recently.

It’s a slim little booklet titled One-Way Pockets by Don Guyon (a pen name for a broker). The book, which was first published in 1917, covers some studies he did on the trading behavior of accounts at the time. What he found was timeless.

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China’s Cinderella Story

January 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Everyone knows that when the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin, the horse into mice and the jeweled gown into rags. The spell is broken and reality returns. I keep thinking of China in this context.

One of the big questions of the year is whether China blows up or not. Hard landing or soft? When will the clock strike midnight on the Chinese? Things are slowing down, and it feels like it’s getting late.

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My Crystal Ball for 2012

January 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

“Ow!” I yelled. It felt as if a sharp needle had plunged into my leg. I looked down, but found nothing. “Something bit me…” I muttered. As I brushed my leg, I felt another painful sting, this one on my pinkie finger. “Ow! What was that!?” Now with pinkie and leg throbbing, I could still see nothing.

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Volatility is Your Friend

January 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

It hasn’t been an easy environment to invest in. Fundamentals seem not to mean anything. The market paints with a super broad and emotional brush. Everything seems to go up and down at the same time.

It’s fascinating to see how people cope with the volatility. Their choices and behavior lead to some very odd market price constellations.

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