Band-Aid Solutions

Let’s face it, governments always try to ‘kick the can down the road'. Rather than deal with economic issues in the here and now, they prefer to postpone the pain. Unfortunately, in their attempt to avoid painful economic recessions, the policymakers sacrifice the purchasing power of their currencies and they end up creating even bigger troubles for the future.

[Read more...]

The Stock Market Has Hit Its Low!…Sort of

Global stock markets are in a multi-year bull-market and nominal prices are likely to appreciate for several more months. In our view, we are currently amidst a normal multi-week consolidation phase and most stock markets are likely to stage a sharp year-end advance.

Look. We know that the developed economies are in trouble and they are unlikely to improve anytime soon. For instance, unemployment remains stubbornly high, deficits are spiraling out of control and debt levels are unprecedented. At first glance, things do look dire but we still believe that nominal stock prices will continue to rise.

[Read more...]

Debunking Deflation

Now that almost every Wall Street economist is looking for the arrival of a Great Deflation, we think investors should begin looking the other way. Keep an eye out for inflation, we say.

You will recall that during the bottom of the previous bear-market, most of the pundits were shunning ‘risky assets' (stocks and commodities) and they were advocating a heavy exposure to cash and fixed income assets. Back then, the vast majority of strategists and their devotees were erroneously fretting about deflation. According to these folks, deflation was a done deal due to the following reasons:

[Read more...]

Blowing Bubbles

BIG PICTURE Lets face it; central banks are blowing another asset bubble. As if two burst bubbles in the prior decade are not enough, the money maestros have decided to fuel another speculative orgy.

Let there be no doubt, both the technology and real estate bubbles were spawned by cheap credit and it is now clear that the central banks have learned nothing from those two episodes. Despite the fact that near-zero interest-rates caused the previous mishaps, the central banks are (once again) pursuing a suicidal monetary policy. By keeping interest-rates well below the rate of inflation, the officials are encouraging speculation, thereby sowing the seeds of yet another asset bubble.

[Read more...]

A Rock and a Hard Place: Understanding the US Debt Crisis

The developed nations are over-extended, their debt levels are ballooning and their governments are creating copious amounts of money. Put simply, most industrialized nations are now caught between a rock and a hard place.

After years of excesses, the developed world is slowly beginning to realize that you cannot continue to live beyond your means and spend your way to prosperity.

[Read more...]

Government Bond Market Just a Ponzi Scheme

Lets face it, the government-bond market in the West is a gigantic Ponzi scheme. Most governments in the developed world are drowning in debt, they are running mind-boggling budget deficits and printing money like there is no tomorrow. Furthermore, under the guise of quantitative easing, their central banks are buying their own newly issued debt!

[Read more...]

The Debt Bomb

Make no mistake; the developed world is drowning in debt and there are only two viable options a global economic depression or very high inflation. It is our contention that the policymakers have chosen the latter option and over the following years, we will experience the trauma of severe inflation.

[Read more...]