Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Since before the tech bust, we’ve been suggesting that while Americans “think” they’re getting richer… they’re actually heading in the other direction. They’re getting poorer.
This proposition has been easier for folks to entertain since housing busted and the financial crisis reversed the “wealth effect” in 2008. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the logic of the American Empire and what you can expect in the year(s) ahead.
[Read more...]Within five years of the United States being written off as a declining economic and imperial power, the shale gas revolution it has pioneered provides it with the energy independence it has sought since the first Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) oil shock of 1973. It also changes the global future of fossil fuels, which have been the basis of the modern intensive growth — generating a sustained increase in per capita incomes, first in the West and now in the Rest.
[Read more...]Put down that jelly donut for a second…
Do you see what’s happening here? This market is in overdrive. The melt-up has been relentless, with the broad market gaining more than 1% yesterday. Nearly 200 domestically traded stocks finished the day up 5% or more.
I told you it would be unwise to fight this tape. Short squeezes are fueling some of the bigger moves higher. Anyone betting against stocks right now is losing his lunch.
[Read more...]A strong stomach and a tremendous amount of patience are required for gold stock investors these days, as miners have been exhibiting their typical volatility pattern.
That’s why I often say to anticipate before you participate, because gold stocks are historically twice as volatile as U.S. stocks. As of March 31, 2013, using 10-year data, the NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index (HUI) had a rolling one-year standard deviation of nearly 35 percent. The S&P 500’s was just under 15 percent.
[Read more...]Last month, I wrote about the current debate over the 2010 paper by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (hereinafter referred to as RR) on the correlation between debt and GDP growth. I said that the most important part of their work, which is the construction of an enormous database on debt and financial crises over the last few hundred years, was to be found in their book This Time Is Different and elsewhere. And their fundamental conclusion: Debt is not a problem until it becomes one. And then it reaches a critical mass and you have what they call the Bang! moment.
[Read more...]The Cleveland Police Department took plenty of criticism when three girls that had been missing for a decade escaped captivity mere miles from their homes. Ariel Castro secretly held the girls hostage for years doing unspeakable things to them. In November 2001, a neighbor called the police when he heard screaming at the Castro home, but officers left when no one opened the front door.
Not long ago I was in Toronto for a couple of days for a conference on what people in the resource space call “Technology Metals.” These are critical elements that go into all manner of advanced materials, electronics, optics and more. Without technology metals, most modern technological systems won’t work like the builders advertise and users desire.
[Read more...]Earning season is coasting toward the finish line.
The final household name to announce is Wal-Mart. That report will hit the wire Thursday. If it’s anything like the rest of the first quarter earnings we’ve seen, there won’t be much to talk about.
Overall, first quarter results were a bore. No big surprises. We were expecting a lackluster earnings season, and that’s exactly what the market delivered…
[Read more...]When volatility prevails in the gold market, I love seeing so many different opinions because it promotes critical thinking and healthy markets. But because gold is unlike any other commodity, many perspectives can be extreme, such as “goldenfreudes” who take pleasure in gold bugs’ pain.
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This “Left For Dead” Industry Is Roaring Back
How can you make money by investing in the stock market? It helps to go where the money is flowing. Along those lines, two of the strongest sectors of the current U.S. economy barely existed a few years ago.
In fact, one sector was left for dead (and I mean roadkill!) when the U.S. government effectively shut it down overnight in 2010. The other sector was rooted in then-novel technology that few people understood, and in which only visionaries saw the future.
[Read more...]Click for detailed story