Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
According to the people who pay attention to such things, there’s less than a 50/50 chance of a war with Iran in the next 12 months.
Barely less.
There’s a 48% chance, if you want to be precise. We’re at 10 minutes to midnight, figuratively speaking.
American civilization has become much more civilized during the last hundred years. In the process, ironically, it has become much more savage toward capitalism and free enterprise.
One hundred years ago, most folks accepted adversity as an unavoidable facet of life. Childbirth was a high-risk endeavor. “Old folks” died at 50. Dysentery claimed more lives than heart attacks. Businesses failed. Governments defaulted. Currencies crumbled.
[Read more...]Well, well… it’s a “risk-off” day in the markets. Let’s look at some quick numbers:
The US dollar has been rallying strongly for several months. That’s what we call a “gift horse.” And just as the saying goes, “Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.” Instead, look for ways to exchange your strong dollars for other currencies and investable assets that don’t fly out of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s printing press.
[Read more...]The average American is paying 13 cents a gallon more for gasoline than he did a week ago. Gasbuddy.com says the national average price for regular unleaded is $3.67.
A barrel of oil goes for $108.33 this morning — up nearly $12 in February alone.
There is, of course, a “fear premium” caused by the prospect of a new war… and an “inflation premium” caused by the Federal Reserve’s monetary promiscuity…
[Read more...]“The Iranian nation has never pursued and will never pursue nuclear weapons,” declared Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, yesterday.
“The Islamic Republic, logically, religiously and theoretically, considers the possession of nuclear weapons a grave sin and believes the proliferation of such weapons is senseless, destructive and dangerous.”
[Read more...]In my investment letter, Addison Wiggin’s Apogee Advisory, we spend a great deal of time, money and resources looking for new investment ideas that our subscribers can act on independently. Sometimes what we find instead is outrage.
For example, the federal government is about to dump millions of the foreclosed homes at fire-sale prices to hedge funds and private-equity firms with government connections. If you’re an individual investor who might like to get in on the action, forget it! You’re shut out of this deal.
[Read more...]Some of the very best Argentine steak houses are in Amsterdam, some of America’s very best rodeo cowboys are Brazilian and some of the world’s very best beach volleyball courts are high in the Swiss Alps. The “cosmopolitanization” of the world is under way — creating vast, new and diverse patterns of commerce… which also means vast, new and diverse investment opportunities.
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The Orszag Fiscal Crisis Plan
We have good news and bad news today: The White House has a secret plan to deal with a fiscal crisis.
The plan’s existence is revealed in a book called The Escape Artists: How Obama’s Team Fumbled the Recovery.
“In May 2009,” writes journalist Noam Scheiber, “the president asked [White House budget director Peter Orszag] to draft a secret memo laying out the government’s options in the event of a fiscal crisis, in which a runaway deficit sent interest rates spiraling upward.
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