In Gold, Not Cyprus, We Trust

Global investors had to muster the courage to keep calm as news of Cyprus’ proposed partial theft of all bank deposits took Wall Street by surprise, closed the country’s banks and drove the price of gold higher.

The thoughtless idea was intended to capture a portion of the $31 billion in bank assets held by Russians. According to The Financial Times, Cyprus has developed a “well-earned reputation for being a haven for dirty money from Russia.”

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None Dare Call It Theft

The euro elites don’t call it theft or robbery or even a tax, much less an outright default by the banks of Cyprus. They are calling it a “stability levy,” a plan that could lead not to stability, but a domino-style collapse of the banking system in Europe.

True to the nature of government propaganda, the Cypriot head of state, Nicos Anastasiades, says this “stability levy” is necessary to forestall “a complete collapse of the banking sector.” It’s the same kind of language we heard in the fall of 2008 — an intimidation tactic used to shove through TARP and unending bailouts.

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Cyprus and Your Bear Market Brain

On Friday, no one cared about Cyprus.

This morning, a measly $13 billion bailout for an island nation your honor student can’t even find on a map is holding world markets hostage.

Most Asian markets are down more than 2%. European stocks are off a little more than 1%. Stateside, futures have dropped less than 1% this morning.

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Trickle Down Stagnation

The Philly Fed manufacturers survey for February plunged from negative 5.8 to negative 12.5, the worst reading in eight months. A big miss from the +1 reading that was expected. Ouch!

Our friends at ZeroHedge point out that hope springs eternal:

“Oddly enough survey participants have been hoping for a brighter future for 4 years now. Expect the sellside penguins to say that this number too should be ignored, just like the initial claims earlier, and the new housing starts yesterday. After all one should ignore all data that does not fit the goalseeked script of a centrally-mandated ‘recovery.’”

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What Every American Needs To Understand About The Economy

As the United States debates its economic future in light of large government budget deficits, it is important that the public has a clear understanding of how the economy works. A good starting point for understanding how the economy works is to understand how it is measured.

Economies are measured in terms of their Gross Domestic Product or GDP. GDP is made up of personal consumption expenditure, private investment, net trade (i.e. exports minus imports) and government spending at both the federal level and the state and local level. If the size of each of these components is known, it is only necessary to add them together to find the size of the whole economy. In 2009, the United States GDP was $14.1 trillion, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Of that amount, spending on personal consumption accounted for 71% or $10 trillion; private investment 11% or $1.6 trillion; and government spending 21% or $2.9 trillion, with federal government spending of $1.1 trillion and state and local government spending of $1.8 trillion. Net trade deducted 3% or $390 billion from GDP because exports from the US were $390 billion less than imports into the US.

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The Present: On the Brink of Disaster

The global economy is in crisis. Government intervention on a multi-trillion dollar scale is the only thing preventing a worldwide collapse into a new great depression.

This crisis is structural, not cyclical. At its core is the fact that global production, swollen by limitless credit denominated in fiat money, greatly exceeds the consumption that can be financed by the income of the individuals who comprise the world’s population. Governments around the world are borrowing, printing and spending on an unprecedented scale to absorb the global excess capacity (and to prevent asset prices from deflating), but these measures cannot continue indefinitely. The structure of the global economy is unstable and unsustainable. A catastrophic economic breakdown may be unavoidable.

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Printing Money Not Actually in Bernanke’s Bag of Tricks

Mr. Ben Bernanke. Mythbuster!

“One myth that’s out there,� he told 60 Minutes, “is that what we’re doing is printing money.�

Ha. Ha. Ha. Can you imagine anything so laughable? So ridiculous? So absurd?

And to think that even we, at The Daily Reckoning, believed it. How could we be so credulous?

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Debt at Every Turn: New Governors Attack the Debt Crisis

“The Day of Reckoning has come!�

So said New Jersey’s new governor-elect.

New Jersey is hardly unique. Practically every government in the developed world faces the same problem. National. State. Local. Expenses grew during the boom years. We all know why. Politicians prefer to spend then to save. They buy votes with other people’s money. That’s why they like programs for poor people. They come cheap. But the votes they buy on credit are even cheaper. Give a job…a handout…free drugs…housing subsidies – and send the bill to the next generation. With declining interest rates and an expanding economy, governments could get away with it. Low interest rates made deficits easy to finance and reduced the cost of refinancing existing debt too.

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Cutting Out the BS of Crisis-Era Bailout Activities

Deception, like a mushroom, flourishes in darkness and manure. And the only way to end a deception is to drag it out into the light…and cut out the BS.

Two weeks ago, for the first time ever, the Federal Reserve dragged its crisis-era bailout activities out into the light of day (thank you Senator Bernie Sanders and Congressman Ron Paul!). The resulting revelations exposed a number of shocking truths, like the truth that the big Wall Street banks did not merely receive one $10 billion loan each from the TARP facility; they also received tens of billions of undisclosed loans from other lending facilities. On top of that, many of the big banks raised hundreds of billions dollars by secretly selling mortgage-backed securities directly to the Fed.

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The Half-Truth and Nothing But the Half-Truth

Transparency is essential in a free market. It enables market participants to make informed investment decisions.

Unfortunately, in America’s “free market� economy, transparency is a latchkey child. It only sees the light of day when someone breaks down the door and carries it outside. Institutions like the Federal Reserve and the Treasury explicitly and vehemently resist transparency. It is the enemy, they say, of an “independent� monetary policy.

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