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The Death of Small Banks in the US

February 28, 2013 by Leave a Comment

The US government is going to kill the small banking industry in the US. The irony is hard to miss. It was not the small banks that threatened the financial system in the crisis of 2008. Yet they will bear the brunt of the regulatory costs imposed in its wake. The end result will be that US banking assets will collect into the hands of even larger banks.

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Bond Guru Still Likes Bonds

February 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment

He has what seems like the easiest job in the world. He manages $4 billion of assets on which he earns fees. And all he does is buy US Treasuries.

His name is Van Hoisington. No man has been more right about interest rates in the last two decades. Van thought they would go down — and has thought so since 1990. So they have. As they fell, the value of Van’s bonds rose. Since he’s been right, his track record is ridiculously good. He has posted a 9.1% annualized return over the last ten years…in a bond fund!

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From Squeeze to Crush (Part Two of Two)

January 22, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Continued from From Squeeze to Crush (Part One of Two).

There is another, far more subtle yet sinister economic force at work which is, in the longer run, even more negative for US equity valuations than the profit margin crush discussed above. This is the erosion of the capital stock, which has been underway for some time. Capital erosion is arguably the single most pernicious if generally unseen side-effect of systematically inflationary monetary policies.

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The World Goes Crazy

January 7, 2011 by Leave a Comment

“…with all the thought and good intentions that we provided…we achieved absolutely nothing. Nothing that I did and very little that old Ben [Strong, head of the US Federal Reserve] did…produced any good effect…or any effect at all. Except that we collected a lot of money from a lot of poor devils and gave it over to the four winds.â€�

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The Nomadic Nature of Money

January 3, 2011 by Leave a Comment

I was intrigued that a guy named David Thurtell, of Citigroup, surprisingly said, “The liquidity pumped out by central banks means that there is a lot of money sloshing around that needs to find a home.�

I was so intrigued that I was tempted to use it as the basis for my first report to the new supervisor for this quadrant of the galaxy, Karpus Klegg the Implacable, at his new office at Intergalactic Headquarters after the “palace coup� and interstellar personnel shake-up that I just found out about.

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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (4 of 4)

January 3, 2011 by Leave a Comment

[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 3.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (3 of 4)

December 30, 2010 by Leave a Comment

[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 2.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (2 of 4)

December 28, 2010 by Leave a Comment

[Continued from Part 1.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (1 of 4)

December 28, 2010 by Leave a Comment

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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How to Double the Debt in 5 Years

December 22, 2010 by Leave a Comment

As a paranoid and angry lunatic, I am always nervous and on the suspicious lookout for subtle signs of danger that I know are all around me because the foul Federal Reserve has created, and is still creating, So Freaking Much Money (SFFM), which means that the terror of ruinous inflation in prices is a dead-bang, take-it-to-the-bank, guaranteed certainty.

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