Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Wolf, Stiglitz, Krugman – we love these guys!
They pushed the world’s governments to undertake huge “stimulus� programs. Of course, the stimulus programs didn’t work. They couldn’t work. All they could do was to disguise the facts and delay the necessary adjustments.
[Read more...]Yesterday was a good day for stock market investors. Prices went up. The Dow rose 254 points, leaving us uncertain about its near-term intentions.
Of course, we’re always uncertain. But sometimes we’re more uncertain than others. What seems certain to us is that stocks are a bad bet.
[Read more...]Well, August washed up. It was the worst month for US stocks in almost a decade. And yesterday didn’t help. The Dow couldn’t manage a rally. It rose just 4 points.
The British newspaper, the Telegraph, has the story:
“It’s pretty clear the US economy has hit a wall,� said Barry Knapp, head of US equity strategy at Barclays Capital. “The macro picture is dominating and, right now, it’s not clear what’s going to get the market out of this spot.�
[Read more...]Let’s see, what happened this summer? Easy question. The recovery went missing.
Ben Bernanke said so last week…or almost. He noted that the economy wasn’t quite as spiffy as he had hoped and that the Fed stands ready, willing, and able to provide more help.
The stock market liked the news. After falling for many days, it rallied 164 points on Friday. Gold was flat.
[Read more...]According to an article that appeared in The New York Times, written by Norihiro Kato, the Japanese have gotten good at sloughing off their worldly cares. Japan is no longer the world’s number two economy; it was eclipsed this summer by China. But the Japanese are used to slippage. We all know the story of their 20-year economic decline; Japan’s GDP actually peaked out about 15 years ago. It has been sliding ever since. That is only a part of the story. In terms of rice production, the Japanese have been downsizing for more than 40 years. Japan’s population, too, grew by 1% per year from 1917 to 1977. It peaked out in 2005. There are fewer Japanese now than there were 5 years ago. If the trend continues, eventually there will be none.
[Read more...]We went to our last summer soiree last night. It took place at a neighbor’s chateau, where a large, ancient stone barn had been transformed into a dining room for 100 people.
“We’re screwed…so are you…â€� said a friend.
First, an update from Wall Street: the Dow was unable to sustain a bounce yesterday. It fell 74 points. Gold dropped $3.
[Read more...]No discussion of the upcoming collapse of the bond market would be complete without a mention of Social Security.
At least, after they’ve lost their money in stocks, real estate and bonds, Americans will at least have Social Security to live on, right? Wrong!
You know all that money you pay in Social Security taxes? Where do you think it goes? Into current expenses and US bonds!
[Read more...]Want to know what is really going on?
Investors are waking up. They are wiping the sleep from their eyes. Behold! No recovery.
Analysts and the commentariat are struggling to make sense of it. With record low mortgage rates, and after eight programs designed to boost up housing, for example, sales are still plummeting. July saw the biggest monthly drop in existing house sales since the Johnson Administration.
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Print Money and Be Damned!
Japan was the world’s most admired economy in the ’80s. Then it was the world’s most despised economy in the ’90s. By 1995, economists pointed their fingers and laughed – the world’s most admired businessman had lost his left shoe.
But now, much of the world is barefoot. The US inflation rate has been going down since the early ’80s and was cut in half since last year. It now hovers barely above zero. Surely Japan – where prices have been falling for two decades – has something to tell us. As we pointed out last week, the Nipponese have been in decline for the last 20 years – with lower stock prices, falling real estate prices, and a falling GDP. Even the population has been sliding for the last five years
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