The currency rally that stalled yesterday was back on last night… I have to tell you that I was up most of the night on Sunday and after getting poked and stuck at the doctor’s office yesterday, I went home, straight to my recliner and slept for the next five hours! Then I woke up, went to my computer and checked the overnight markets, and I saw the currencies had turned around, along with gold. So naturally, I began to scour the news to see what was going on.
[Read more...]Commodities Take Off!
January 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The Greek talks returned to the headlines this morning. I know I said this last Friday, and I was a little too optimistic and turned out to be wrong! But… I do expect this agreement on a private-sector involvement in Greek debt to get hammered out this weekend… It seems that the opposition from eurozone policymakers is backing off, and that has me optimistic once again.
[Read more...]Currency Rally Fades in Overnight Trading
January 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The currency/risk on rally was quite strong yesterday, all day long! However, in the overnight markets, we’ve seen some profit taking, and reassessing of what they were doing, like pushing the euro to above 1.30. I say that because there’s still no agreement with Greece and the private creditors… I keep hearing and reading analysts, talking about how the Greece problem is unsolvable… OK… maybe it is… but if that’s true, then what about Illinois? Or California?
[Read more...]Home Prices Keep Falling
January 23, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day… Should be an interesting week, as the ECOFIN people meet and Greece is still working on their debt and… this will be my first full week of work in over a month, so all in all, pretty interesting!
What I also found interesting on Friday was the price action of silver… I don’t know if you follow silver or not… I do — very closely, I might add! But silver was outperforming gold by a long shot, rising over $1 on the day, which you don’t normally see in the silver price action. My colleague Aaron yelled over the desk to ask me what was going on with silver, as he too watches it closely… I couldn’t really find anything out there, so the thought came to me very quickly that silver must be playing “catch-up”…
[Read more...]China to Show More Manufacturing Weakness?
January 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment
What looked like a workable situation for Greece and private creditors has taken a turn that has the euro (EUR) vulnerable again this morning. It’s not as if the situation is unworkable. It’s just that they are struggling to come to an agreement, and since it’s not as smooth as Jiffy, then the Chicken Littles come out of the crowds… But then, quite frankly, I have been surprised by the strength the euro has displayed this week. The euro has always shown resiliency, but as I’ve said a couple of times now this year… I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall to 1.18 and then rebound to 1.40… But we have 49 more weeks to go in 2012. There’s a lot of give and take here, so buckle up, yes, that’s right: Click it or ticket…
[Read more...]Existing Home Sales: Up or Down?
December 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The markets will be getting thin today, and will be super light tomorrow as most of the traders take some time off for the holidays. These thin markets can be volatile, as any moves are exaggerated by the lack of volume in the markets. We have lots of data hitting the markets today, which could be the spark for some real action, so it may get interesting.
[Read more...]Euro Rallies on Positive IFO Index and a Successful Spanish Debt Auction
December 20, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The euro (EUR) sure enjoyed a better night rebounding from close to its annual low versus the US dollar. A surprisingly upbeat IFO business climate index combined with a pledge of more funds for the bailout and a positive Spanish auction to send the common currency higher. The IFO Institute’s index, based on a survey of 7,000 German business executives, rose to a three-month high of 107.2 from 106.6 in November. Economists had expected the index to drop to 106. November’s number had surprised on the upside also, so this month’s value certainly seems to confirm a trend that indicates Germany’s economy may be able to push through the credit crisis to remain on a solid growth path.
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Who’s Still OK With Deficit Spending Now?
I had to laugh yesterday when the New York traders came in and didn’t sell the currencies right away… I said to myself, “Self, maybe the ‘big boys’ read the Pfennig and now know that I’ve uncovered their ‘game,’ so they have to lay low for a while!” HA! Whatever the case, the currencies held their gains most of the day, and even added on in some cases.
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