The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (4 of 4)

[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 3.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (3 of 4)

[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 2.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (2 of 4)

[Continued from Part 1.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (1 of 4)

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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The Municipal Bond Pitch: “What You’re Giving Me is Pure Bulls**t�

Undaunted by falling municipal bond prices, rising yields, and withdrawal of funds, research reports by large brokerage firms still mollify the majority of clients and fund managers with numbers and assertions: “General obligation bonds do not default.” “The general obligation default rate is 0.01%.” “Most states are required by law to balance their budgets.” To these and other airtight arguments in the muni marketing kit, the proper articulation of doubt may be expressed as: “Yeah, Yeah, Yeah.” Or, one might read  “Possible Misunderstandings by Municipalities and Their Bonds.”

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Largest 15 US States are Spending Over 220% of Their Tax Revenue

The big news this week in terms of ginormous government transfer payments is, as usual, out of the Fed, as it embarks on an equally ambitious and ill-fated mission to buy $600 billion of US Treasury debt. Unsurprisingly, it’s not the only immense transfer of wealth taking place between governmental bodies. As spotlighted by Meredith Whitney, CEO of the Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, the feds are continuing to subtly bailout state governments at record levels and in an ongoing and unsustainable fashion which she describes in a recent WSJ opinion piece.

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California Dreamin’

California’s Napa Valley gets the headlines, the wine-tasting awards and the black-tie charity dinners…California’s “Emerald Triangle” gets the cash.

That’s right, the Golden State’s marijuana crop generates about $14 billion in revenue each year, and most of that revenue flows into the three main cannabis-growing counties of Humboldt, Mendocino and Trinity — aka, the Emerald Triangle. $14 billion may not seem like much, as it is roughly the same sum as the bonus pool at Goldman Sachs. On the other hand, $14 billion is larger than the GDP of Iceland, double the GDP of Nicaragua…and seven times larger than the revenue of the California winegrape industry.

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Making Money from Municipal Waste

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, is defaulting; Half Moon Bay, California, is disincorporating; and the City of Miami, Florida, declared a “state of fiscal urgency,” then broke contracts with workers. Yet, Pennsylvania, California, and Florida municipal bond funds managed by Blackrock are trading at or near 52-week highs.

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A Lucky Pot of “City of Bell Manager� Gold

The continuing saga of the City of Bell — and it’s wildly overpaid public officials — today revealed that pensions for three of the former administrators will be withheld… at least until the state attorney general figures out whether or not the crooks are actual law-breaking criminals.

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Caught Red-Handed With Outrageous Salaries, City Officials Take Pay Cuts, Resign

The furor we discussed last week over obscene levels of municipal pay in the tiny 38,000-person city of Bell, California — where an average resident’s salary is about $25,000 and the city manager was paid $800,000 — is hurtling toward its initial phases of resolution.

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