Good day… And a Wonderful Wacky Wednesday to you! Why Wacky? Well… The dollar rally that I told you was merely a correction of the too far, too fast moves in currencies, and precious metals, is over… And over in a BIG WAY! We’re right back to the lofty levels we saw on Friday morning… So, your two days of opportunity to buy currencies and precious metals at cheaper levels is now in the rearview mirror.
[Read more...]The Impact of Japan’s Negative Interest Rates
October 5, 2010 by Leave a Comment
The grenade that economist Joseph Stiglitz threw from left field at the euro (EUR) yesterday, was a one-day hit. You see… The euro is back to moving higher versus the dollar this morning. More on that, and the RBA leaving their powder dry, in today’s issue, so let’s go!
[Read more...]House Passes Protectionism Measure
September 30, 2010 by Leave a Comment
On my way into work this morning the radio was playing one of my fave Pink Floyd songs, “Comfortably Numb,â€� which also happens to be a fave phrase of mine… Well, the song got me thinking about the currency performances this month, since this is the last day of September… And what a month it has been for the currencies and not so much for the dollar!
[Read more...]Problems For The Dollar Index
September 29, 2010 by Leave a Comment
The dollar index, which is heavily weighted with euros (EUR), is sinking fast. How fast is it sinking? Well, yesterday, even with the brief dollar rally in the early morning, the dollar index was unable to climb back to an 80 level, which is significant enough, but the other thing that happened once the dollar rally was over, was that the dollar index saw it’s 55-day moving average fall through it’s 200-day moving average… For all you chartists out there, that’s HUGE, right? Yes… It is… So, yesterday when I sent the note to Chris and Frank, the dollar index was hanging onto 79… This morning it is 78.82… The low this year was 76.60 back in January, before all the Eurozone GIIPS began to show rot on their vines.
[Read more...]Durable Goods Fall, But Business Spending is Up
September 27, 2010 by Leave a Comment
As Chuck informed all of you on Friday, I have got the conn on the Pfennig today and tomorrow as he was called down to Jacksonville for a few meetings. As always, Chuck left me with a few tidbits to get me going, so I’ll kick off today’s missive with Chuck’s view of the markets:
[Read more...]Japan Agrees With US on Chinese Monetary Policy
September 23, 2010 by Leave a Comment
The euphoria in the currencies and metals carried through yesterday morning, with the euro (EUR) bumping up to 1.3425, and the Aussie dollar (AUD) bumping up to 0.9568… But the profit taking began to step in, and soon all the lofty levels that the currencies and metals had gained for the previous 24 hours were seeing slippage, and that slippage soon became hard selling.
[Read more...]A Ride on the Currency Roller Coaster
September 21, 2010 by Leave a Comment
The Ohio Players were singing their song “Roller Coasterâ€� as I begin today’s letter. I thought the song played well with the action we’ve seen in the currencies lately… The Roller Coaster of Love, has turned into The Roller Coaster of Currencies…
What am I talking about? In each of the last four or five mornings, I’ve come in, turned on the currency screens and seen the euro (EUR) trading stronger versus the dollar; the last three days, it’s been above 1.31, only to see the single unit fall throughout the day in US trading…but then rally again overnight… Up, down, up, down, we need some new directions, eh?
[Read more...]The Euro Trades Through Resistance!
September 16, 2010 by Leave a Comment
As I suspected in yesterday’s Pfennig, the dollar selling and the pause in the currency rally that was caused by Japanese intervention, has not continued… Yes, the currencies, for the most part, are back on the rally tracks versus the dollar this morning. The euro (EUR) is leading the pack, just like the old days, eh?
[Read more...]US Retail Sales Better Than Expected
September 15, 2010 by Leave a Comment
The Bank of Japan finally intervened in the markets last night, selling yen (JPY) for the first time since 2004… I had warned you that this would come about, and now it has… The BOJ came in with both guns a-blazin’, just like I told you they would, and moved the level of yen from its lofty level of 82.88 to 85.20 this morning.
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US Dollar Rises on QE2 Theories
It was fairly uneventful in the currency market yesterday, but the dollar held the hammer at the end of the day, as there were only two currencies that posted gains. I’ll jump into currencies in a moment, but first, we’ll take a look at the results of the economic reports released here in the US. Right out of the gate, we had the TIC flows (security purchases by foreigners), Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, which were then followed by a measure of housing.
[Read more...]Click for detailed story