China’s Cinderella Story

Everyone knows that when the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin, the horse into mice and the jeweled gown into rags. The spell is broken and reality returns. I keep thinking of China in this context.

One of the big questions of the year is whether China blows up or not. Hard landing or soft? When will the clock strike midnight on the Chinese? Things are slowing down, and it feels like it’s getting late.

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Avoiding the Danger Zones in the Year Ahead

And here we are at the end of the week…and the end of the year.

And we’re no surer of what is going on than we were at the beginning of it.

The Dow rose 135 points yesterday. But gold kept going down. It is looking more and more like gold intends to make its big correction now… It’s been down for 6 days in a row.

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Misunderstanding Capitalism

As expected, the euphoria died overnight. On Wednesday, the Dow was up nearly 500 points. Thursday, it fell 23 points.

More and more people are coming to the same conclusion. The bull market is a fraud. And the system is corrupt. And they’re right. But not for the reasons they think.

Here is Number One on the “Capitalism as we know it doesn’t work” hit parade. From Forbes:

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How China Will Defeat America

Don’t expect spending on the pentagon to decrease. Not with our nation’s security at stake. And not with China posing an ever-greater threat.

An article by Yan Xuetong, translated from mandarin, tells “How China can defeat America.” The gist of Mr. Xuetong’s thought is that rising hegemons are a lot nicer than declining ones. Besides that, history is on the side of the rising power.

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Will The CFTC Have Teeth?

The currency rally late last week and Sunday night is over… I think the two comments I told you about yesterday from a German official and then from the German Finance Minister (about the prospects of a “solution for the Eurozone debt crisis” being put to bed by next Monday) have really scared the markets into believing they went too far last week and Sunday night…

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When Empires Change Hands

We got back to Buenos Aires last night. When we got into a cab, we found the driver curious and loquacious.

“You have an accent. Are you French?”

“No…but it’s a good guess. I’ve lived in France for the last 15 years.”

“Oh…I studied French for years. I was the best in my class. But I forgot it.

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As the World Economy Turns

What keeps this world economy turning around?

Not the US. America’s private sector isn’t spinning at all. It’s stuck…dead in the water…out of gas…pumped out…

GDP growth is reported at 1%. But that’s almost all government transfer payments and stimulus deficits. Real growth is negative.

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Correcting America’s Position in the Global Economy

Baltimore is a great town. It has more liquor stores than churches. But it is being taken over by zombies. More below…

Yesterday, the Dow went up 44 points. Gold rose $16.

Just noise. Pay no attention.

Both stocks and gold are moving against what we think SHOULD they should be doing. Of course, Mr. Market doesn’t give a hoot what we think.

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China Forecast: Cloudy With a Chance of Rain

Remember the phrase “Buy what China needs to buy”? It was a good thesis for us for years. I dipped the ladle into this idea bowl often. And the stocks of producers of potash, oil, iron ore and other stuff from the earth did well. But the tides of fortune ebb and flow. Will these commodities be good investments from here?

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