Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
The year is almost over. Time to write the obituaries.
What kind of year was it? A flop. A failure. A loser. Just like we said it would be.
It was a “year that fizzled,� writes David Leonhardt in The New York Times.
It was the year that the economy started to recover and then slid back into a slump – only to offer reason for renewed hope in the final weeks.
[Read more...]No market news. Every market in Christendom was closed for the 25th.
Still, the crackpot theorists and muddled meddlers never seem to take a holiday. Robert Shiller should have been embarrassed to write the following words. The New York Times should have been embarrassed to print them.
[Read more...]What does the ghost of Christmas Future have to show us? What grave? What empty chair? What jokers at the funeral?
The end of the year approacheth. What do we know? What have we learned? Where have we come to?
Come hither specter… Come, tell us your secrets. Take us by the hand… Show us tomorrow.
[Read more...]Consumer prices rose 0.1% in November…and less than a percent over the past year. If you strip out food and energy – which government number crunchers do, because those prices are allegedly “volatileâ€� – you still get a 0.1% increase.
That’s the “core� CPI, and that’s what the monetary mandarins at the Federal Reserve care about when drafting plans to buy Treasuries, control interest rates, goose employment numbers, order pizza, drink wine, play Xbox 360 or any of the myriad other things they do during their FOMC meetings.
[Read more...]A chill came over the currencies and metals yesterday, which was about right, when you take into consideration the trading patterns of the past month… Two days risk on; two days risk off, and so on… This time though, the risk off that began yesterday mid-morning, looked to me to be a fundamental move… What? Fundamentals driving currency movements? What, has the world gone crazy? Well… It certainly looked that way… And it all began with the printing of US retail sales…
[Read more...]On Wednesday, December 8, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its latest interest rate decision. At first glance, it might appear that a small rate hike is in order, considering the country’s rising costs of living. But dig a bit deeper, and the overwhelming likelihood is that the bank will not change rates at all – placing a lot of short-term selling pressure on the New Zealand dollar (NZD).
[Read more...]Two reports just released, the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index and the Booz & Company consumer spending report, both arrive at the same conclusion… US shoppers keep holding back and putting off big purchases.
[Read more...]We were curious about what would happen yesterday. The market sold off on Friday. The question was: are investors rejecting Ben Bernanke and his printing press money?
Another big drop in stocks yesterday would have confirmed the rejection hypothesis. A big increase in stock prices would have suggested that investors were on board with QE.
[Read more...]“Debt delenda est,� we told our audience in London this morning. “This is a debt story. It’s not a liquidity story. It’s not a ‘capitalism has failed’ story. It’s not a regulatory story. It’s the story of debt. Too much debt. Too much to pay back.
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Reexamining the Income-Expense Ratio
Would you like to correct your mistakes? Fix your errors? Make yourself a better person? Have more success? Find love, happiness and money in 2011?
You need a resolution!
Fortunately, most people’s lives are easy to improve. They don’t have to do anything. They just have to stop doing things that are stupid.
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