Good day… We had another fairly quiet day in the markets on Tuesday, and it looks like most of the currency desks have already been placed on autopilot. Every year we get a lull in trading activity toward the end of the year, as most of the currency investors square up positions and donâ€™t take large bets at the end of the year. Many of the desks are manned by junior staff while the big bosses head out for their holiday vacations (EverBank WorldMarkets included). But for the first time this week, we will have a pretty good bunch of data releases here in the US, so we could see a bit more action in the markets. With thinner trading volumes, a rogue piece of economic data can have a major impact on the markets.[Read more...]
On Nov. 22, the Irish government broke down and accepted a massive 85-billion euro ($113 billion) bailout package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund. The move was supposed to alleviate fears of an EU-wide credit meltdown. Instead, concerns that Spain or Portugal could be next to default have kept Europe in crisis mode.[Read more...]
Investments in China and Brazil are a bit overdone at the moment. Donâ€™t get me wrong, thereâ€™s still plenty of upside for both currencies — but not quite at the rate of the last few years.
So, where can an international investor seek higher rates of return? Try the Chilean peso. Although the currency has enjoyed brief run-up in recent quarters, there is still plenty of upside room left. Letâ€™s take a quick look at why.[Read more...]
On October 11, the Turkish government announced that its national budget deficit for next year will fall vastly below expectations. Instead of 45 billion liras, officials see a shortfall of only 34 billion liras â€“ or about $24 billion.
Itâ€™s just the latest in a string of positive data releases for Turkey. And itâ€™s why Turkeyâ€™s currency, the lira, has appreciated by 4% since October of last year. But can it continue?[Read more...]
Yesterday morning, the currencies and precious metals were soaring versus the dollar, and I said we would have to see what the NY boys and girls thought about it all when they arrived at their trading desks. Apparently, they didnâ€™t think too much about anything, as the currencies just drifted the rest of the day. Yes, there was some profit taking, but not much, leaving the currencies and precious metals adrift…[Read more...]
When it comes to high-yield investments, few instruments have surpassed emerging market currencies over the past two years or so. As equities and commodities struggled, BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) currencies soared. The Russian ruble (RUB) turned in an 18% return in 2009, while the Brazilian real (BRL) gained 30%.[Read more...]
The risk investors have nothing but green lights in front of them too! Risk is ON! Funny how things have changed, eh? I mean, in the â€œold daysâ€� an Industrial Production report from China would have been ignored, for it was â€œall about the USâ€�… But not any longer, apparently, because, the Chinese Industrial Production and Retail Sales reports over the weekend, have opened Pandoraâ€™s Box of currency rallies![Read more...]
The currencies are trading in the same clothes as yesterday. Itâ€™s almost like the movie Groundhog Day, for the euro (EUR) has performed the say way as the previous sessions… For instance, the euro rose up to 1.2765 yesterday, only to fall back to just above 1.27, and then overnight, like the previous night, the euro rose to 1.2740, only to see it fall back again.[Read more...]
Who would have thought that the euro would have come this far, this fast? After falling to a 4-year low of $1.19 against the US dollar, the European currency has made a sharp recovery â€“ trading today at around $1.30.
But donâ€™t think for a moment that the euro is a safe bet again. The fact is, the euro is floating higher because of three simple factors that could disappear at any time. And its surge has nothing to do with the European Central Bankâ€™s â€œstress testsâ€� or even Europeâ€™s fundamentals.[Read more...]
Yesterday morning I told you that the euro (EUR) had broken above 1.30, and I would check it to see how long it remained there… Well, this time it was more than 10 minutes, and the euro rose to 1.3040… But then the rug was pulled from under the single unit, and back below 1.30 it went… In fact, it fell to just above 1.29, before turning around once again and heading higher, eventually ending the day at 1.30.[Read more...]