Good day, and welcome to the last Thursday in April. As Chuck mentioned, I’ll be steering the ship today while he travels to Florida for some conferences, so the call to the bullpen has been made. All in all, it was a fairly quiet day, and if I had to make a call one way or the other, I would have to say Wednesday turned out to be a risk-on type of day. While the U.S. earnings season has definitely fueled the risk on campers, it was touch-and-go for a while.
[Read more...]Aussie Inflation Falls, Dragging the Aussie Dollar Down
April 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The Aussie inflation report that printed last night certainly is going to give my thought of no rate cut a lot of problems. Aussie first-quarter CPI rose just 0.3% from the previous quarter.
The forecasts ranged from 0.5-0.6%, so the lower inflation is going to be the straw that stirs the drink for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), who had hung their rate cut hat on this report. Now that it has printed and was very weak, I don’t see how the RBA doesn’t cut rates. So much for me leaving a light on for no cut, eh?
[Read more...]Debt Sinks Currency Rally
April 18, 2012 By Leave a Comment
The currency rally was stopped in its tracks last night. After watching the euro (EUR) rally to 1.3175 yesterday, I was prepared to come in and tell you all about how the Spanish debt auction results had given the euro the wind in its sails it needed. And that was the case, that is until the overnight markets pushed the single unit back down below 1.31. And when that happens, the rest of the currencies search for a bid — but find just a few crumbs of bids out there.
[Read more...]China Widens Trading Band
April 16, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Well… Friday quickly turned around regarding the currencies and metals rally, and sent them to the woodshed… Stocks also retreated, thus making it a triumvirate of risk assets getting sold… That makes it a Risk Off day… Apparently, the slower-than-expected (but still 8.1%) GDP in China really scared the bejeebers out of the stock jockeys, and once the selling began there it carried over to the currencies and metals.
[Read more...]Fed Gives Parameters for Additional Stimulus
April 4, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. Boy, did I ever “hit the wall” yesterday! I got home and collapsed in my recliner, and immediately fell asleep. It had been a whirlwind three weeks, and then I “hit the wall.” It looks as if the risk assets have “hit the wall” too yesterday afternoon, which has carried through to the overnight markets.
[Read more...]EU Finance Ministers to Double Bailout Fund
March 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. The dollar traded in a fairly tight range most of the day, holding on to earlier gains. But just after lunch, sentiment shifted and the dollar started to drop, closing U.S. trading below the level it opened. And the fall accelerated as Asian traders entered the markets, pushing the euro (EUR) back above $1.335 and Aussie (AUD) over $1.04.
[Read more...]Data Show the US Recovery Isn’t Strong
March 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. The dollar maintained its stronger tone yesterday, in spite of durable goods data, which came in slightly lower than predicted. Durable goods orders for February increased 2.2% versus last month’s revised 3.6% drop, and the ex-transportation number was up 1.6% versus a revised drop of 3% last month. Neither of these numbers met economist’s expectations, but the revision of last month’s numbers apparently offset this month’s failure to live up to expectations. MBA mortgage applications were down 2.7%, better than last month’s drop of 7.4%.
[Read more...]Bernanke Jawbones the Equity Markets Higher
March 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Good day. The dollar fell against many of the higher-yielding currencies yesterday following a speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke, which the markets interpreted as signaling Fed policies will remain accommodative for some time. Investors have been linking the more-positive U.S. data, including a steadily improving labor market, with concern that the Fed’s policymakers would have to retract their January statement that U.S. monetary policy would remain “exceptionally accommodative.”
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Japan Turns to Quantitative Easing Once Again!
The Bank of Japan, with instructions from the Japanese Finance Ministry, announced that they would increase their purchases of Japanese government bonds. You know they decided to do this because their multiple implementations of QE, going back 20 years, have all worked so well! NOT!
We all hear the party line that central banks do this to “stimulate growth.” And we know that it “kind of” works… but for only so long. Then you need to do more, right, Big Ben Bernanke?
[Read more...]