Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Dow down 39 yesterday. Gold plus $2. And the noose tightens on Bernanke's neck.
As of this writing, Wall Street is still in bull mode. Can you make money by joining it? Maybe. Is it worth it? Probably not.
If you do decide to play the game…just be sure you remember what game you're playing. This is a Great Correction. Over time, prices are going to work their way down until the Dow has dropped below its March 2009 low.
[Read more...]Dow up…gold down. That's been the micro-trend over the past few days. The 30 bluest chips are up about 400 points since last Thursday. The Midas metal, having suffered a $21 selloff since this time yesterday, is down to around $1,160 an ounce.
At first glance, it would appear that things are looking up for the world's most indebted economy. People are selling their catastrophe insurance – gold – and freeing up a bit of cash to take to the casino – stocks. But as our fellow reckoners already know, things are not always as they seem.
[Read more...]Imagine the face of Lt. George Morris. On March 8, 1862, his ship, the USS Cumberland, found itself a victim of what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called ‘creative destruction.' The creativity came in the form of a revolutionary new technology, iron-clad ships. The destruction came in the form of cannonballs, which were smashing the poor Cumberland to bits. The Cumberland fired its cannons too. But its volleys merely ricocheted off its adversary, the CSS Virginia, like pebbles off a turtle's back.
[Read more...]This is very disconcerting, fellow forecaster. Paul Krugman is making sense… up to a point.
“We are now, I fear, in the early stages of a third depression,? the Nobel laureate wrote in a NY Times Op-Ed yesterday, dipping his toes into a pool we've been sloshing around in for some time.
[Read more...]The primary trend is down…
Stocks fell again yesterday. The Dow lost 66 points.
The big shakeout was in the gold market with a fall of $21.
It is unusual for gold to fall more (proportionately) than stocks. So, whats the gold market trying to tell us? And why didnt it mention it before?
[Read more...]A wide-ranging research newsletter on the sovereign time bomb released today covers topics including hyperinflation, deflation, bond, gold, and its perspective on the government’s role in creating the financial crisis. Matterhorn Asset Management believes governments will not abandon further credit expansion.
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Three Out of Four Economists are Wrong
What does an economist think…when he adjourns to the local bar…or is hauled away to the asylum? In the dead of night or the quiet of a confessional, does he laugh sourly at having fooled most of the people most of the time? Or does he curse his trade and feel like hanging himself?
The thing economists said was nearly impossible actually happened last week. Yields on 2-year US debt hit a record low just as the Treasury prepares for another record-setting deficit. The supply of Treasury debt and the demand for it hit new highs – together. Stranger things have happened. But the strangeness of this event has caused a furor loquendi amongst economists. Usually, there are only two major ways of misunderstanding current events. Now there are at least four of them.
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