The future – the happiness and prosperity of mankind – will be determined by how global supply and global demand are brought back into balance. If the means are found to expand aggregate demand sufficiently and sustainably, then the global excess supply will be absorbed and the global economy will begin to grow again. If, on the other hand, equilibrium is restored by a collapse in supply – back to a point at which there is real demand, a point determined by the current income and purchasing power of the individuals who comprise the world’s population – then globalization will collapse and the world economy will plunge into depression. Should that occur, millions of people around the world could starve before the decade is out. The geopolitical repercussions of such a scenario would be beyond dire.
[Read more...]2-Year High for Oil Pushes the Loonie Higher
Well… As I expected, the euro (EUR) really ran up on Friday’s trading, as shorts were covered and trading books were squared for year-end. I truly believe that this euro-buying could be reversed as we go through the first month of 2011… The reason I say that is I truly believe that the euro will come under pressure, as the Eurozone gets probed to come up with better solutions to their periphery countries’ problems. I expect Germany to balk at many things, and when they balk, the runners get to move up…the runners being the dollar, and gold…
[Read more...]The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (4 of 4)
[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 3.]
In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.
[Read more...]The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (3 of 4)
[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 2.]
In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.
[Read more...]The Present: On the Brink of Disaster
The global economy is in crisis. Government intervention on a multi-trillion dollar scale is the only thing preventing a worldwide collapse into a new great depression.
This crisis is structural, not cyclical. At its core is the fact that global production, swollen by limitless credit denominated in fiat money, greatly exceeds the consumption that can be financed by the income of the individuals who comprise the world’s population. Governments around the world are borrowing, printing and spending on an unprecedented scale to absorb the global excess capacity (and to prevent asset prices from deflating), but these measures cannot continue indefinitely. The structure of the global economy is unstable and unsustainable. A catastrophic economic breakdown may be unavoidable.
[Read more...]The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (2 of 4)
[Continued from Part 1.]
In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.
[Read more...]The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (1 of 4)
In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.
[Read more...]The Derivatives Market Monstrosity
I assume that you, as an intelligent person who understands that the treacherous, greedy, vampire banks creating so much excess money means We’re Freaking Doomed (WFD), are Up To Your Freaking Ears (UTYFE) in gold, silver and oil, and you have had it UTYFE with your family always complaining about how you spend all the family’s income on gold, silver and oil instead of luxuries, family vacations, adequate food, clothing, medical care, dental care, blah blah blah, the list goes on and on.
US Data Indicate Slow Economic Growth
The dollar stayed in the tight range in which it has been trading over the past week. The range of the dollar index over the past 5 days has been just 0.71%. Talk about stable markets! We had a plethora of data released here in the US yesterday, with most of the numbers coming in below expectations. The big number was third quarter GDP, which was reported at 2.6% compared to an estimate of 2.8%. While the number failed to reach economists upbeat estimates, it was slightly higher than the previous estimate of 2.5% growth. Personal consumption for the third quarter also came in below expectations with a 2.4% increase compared to predictions of a 2.9% rise. And the final piece of data in the GDP group, the GDP Price Index, rose 2.1% versus survey estimates of 2.3%.
[Read more...]
The Best Currency You’ve Never Heard Of
We begin today’s reckoning with a trivia question: how many möngös are there in a tugrik?
If you guessed 100, congratulations! If you didn’t know, don’t worry. The Mongolians probably don’t care either way. The tugrik, their national currency, may not be much discussed outside the world’s strangest-sounding capital city, Ulaanbaatar, but it was still the world’s best performing currency of 2010. Well, the best paper currency, anyway.
[Read more...]Click for detailed story