It’s the EU’s Crisis now, but the US Could be Next

The financial crisis that began in housing, and then with banks and insurers, has now moved onto the balance sheets of nations. And, among the fiscally unsound, it’s the euro that is suffering the most. It recently hit a 14-month low in dollar terms, and the ongoing uncertainty facing the EU continues to break records for pessimism.

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A Global Rebalancing Act

For about the past half century the US has maintained a trade deficit. On the other hand, China has developed a trade surplus mostly because of the lopsided trade situation between the two countries. China makes a wide range of cheap goods and most of them are bought in the US.

During the financial crisis, and its aftermath, these imbalances seemed to rein in a bit and trade between the two countries looked like it could at least be headed back in the direction of a healthy alignment. However, it was a temporary and misleading close in the gap. The imbalance reduced only because global trade overall was shrinking… including the distortions… not because there was any real improvement in the US-China trade situation.

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A New Reserve Currency Made in China

When the Euro was introduced in 1999, Europe was likely dreaming that its multinational currency could one day overtake the dollar as the international reserve currency.  But, among other countries, the old continent has had severe problems with Spain — today its the third country to be downgraded by Standard & Poors – and China’s currency is instead looking more and more like the replacement currency.

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More Regulatory Power for the Federal Reserve?

There’s been time… a lot of time. Yet, two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Congress is still introducing various potential regulations in the hopes of keeping yesterday’s problems from occurring again in the future. The latest bill from Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) is positioned to put just a little “bit more power” into the same oh-so-capable hands that failed the last time around… the Federal Reserve.

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End of a QE Era

- Can you feel it? The world is in a different place this morning.

Yes, the sun is still shining, birds still chirp and the hype over Apple’s iPad is still building beyond an already insufferable level. Your world may appear normal. But there’s a qualitative difference to the economy today, brought on by the absence of “quantitative easing,” or QE — our favorite acronym of 2010.

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Gold Keeps Climbing Higher

Gold Is Busting Out All Over The gold stocks caught on fire over the past fortnight.  They have lagged behind the metal in relative strength, but, since they are more volatile than the metal, bigger profits are the result.  For example, gold is well above its early September levels, but the XAU and the HUI have only broken above their corresponding levels just last week. Measuring from May 22, 2009, when I last resumed a full bullish-gold position, the metal is up 16.5%.  My Model Conservative portfolio is up 33.6%.  The further back you start, the prettier it gets.  For example, starting with the beginning of the grand cycle gold bull market (early 2001), the price of gold has multiplied by 4.4 times.  The HUI has multiplied by 12.4 times.  Pretty it is, and pretty it will continue.  During the same time period the S&P is down 7%. Yet all I hear from the establishment is the same mantra: “Buy stocks.  Stocks must go up.  They always have.  Don’t buy gold.  Gold is a collectable.”  Sad, very sad.  Beating these people is like taking candy from a baby. [Read more...]

India Gold Purchase and Where the Dollar Falls

India Stampedes Into Gold

Two hundred metric tons of gold—the largest gold purchase in history. Think 44 Asian elephants. The buyer’s motive was clear: to get away from the dollar. But why did America’s leaders give the okay for the imf to sell America’s gold?

Late last month the Central Bank of India bought 200 metric tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund. It is the biggest signal yet that Asian countries are moving away from the dollar, the Financial Times inferred. As he swapped his country’s dollars for hard assets, India’s finance minister was blunt: The economies of the U.S. and Europe have “collapsed.” India was doing what it could to prepare for the coming meltdown. [Read more...]

Gold Outpacing All Currencies

Gold Continues to Gain Against All Currencies THE PRICE OF GOLD rose to fresh record highs against the US Dollar for the fifth session in six in early London dealing on Wednesday, recording an AM Gold Fix above $1114 an ounce. Up by more than 28% for 2009 to date for US investors, gold also rose against all other currencies, breaking its best level against the Japanese Yen since July 2008 above Ą3220 per gram as world stock markets gained, government bonds held steady, and crude oil ticked higher from $79 per barrel. Gold also broke new 8-month highs above €743 and CHF 1121 an ounce for Eurozone and Swiss investors, trading 6% and 4.5% respectively off February's all-time record peaks. [Read more...]

IMF: US Dollar “Still Over-Valued”

Gold Makes It 3 Records in 4 Days THE PRICE OF GOLD jumped to new all-time Dollar records for the third time in four trading days early Monday in London, trading above $1110 an ounce – up more than 27% for 2009 to date – as the US currency fell hard on the forex market. World stocks added 0.4% on the MSCI index to continue their four-month surge after Sunday's meeting of G20 political leaders in Scotland vowed to "continue to provide support for the economy until the recovery is assured." [Read more...]