Data Show US Economy is Improving

Good day. The dollar continued to benefit from the troubles in Europe yesterday, adding to its weekly gains. The dollar index, which tracks the major currencies versus the U.S. dollar, is up 1.86% in the past five days as investors seek the shelter of the U.S. Treasury market.

I was talking to Mike last night, preparing for this morning’s Pfennig, and we agreed that all of this dollar buying is starting to look a bit overdone. At some point, the markets will figure they have “priced in” the Greek exit and will again start to trade on fundamentals.

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Data Show US Economy is Improving

Good day. The dollar continued to benefit from the troubles in Europe yesterday, adding to its weekly gains. The dollar index, which tracks the major currencies versus the U.S. dollar, is up 1.86% in the past five days as investors seek the shelter of the U.S. Treasury market.

I was talking to Mike last night, preparing for this morning’s Pfennig, and we agreed that all of this dollar buying is starting to look a bit overdone. At some point, the markets will figure they have “priced in” the Greek exit and will again start to trade on fundamentals.

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Data Show the US Recovery Isn’t Strong

Good day. The dollar maintained its stronger tone yesterday, in spite of durable goods data, which came in slightly lower than predicted. Durable goods orders for February increased 2.2% versus last month’s revised 3.6% drop, and the ex-transportation number was up 1.6% versus a revised drop of 3% last month. Neither of these numbers met economist’s expectations, but the revision of last month’s numbers apparently offset this month’s failure to live up to expectations. MBA mortgage applications were down 2.7%, better than last month’s drop of 7.4%.

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The Greek Parliament Bails Out the Markets

The Greek Parliament approved the austerity measures yesterday, giving traders the confidence to head back into the markets. We will have a fairly big week of economic data releases here in the U.S., which should help keep things interesting. Lots to cover, so I better get going if I am going to get this delivered on time!

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Economic Growth in the New Millennium

Wow! That was quick!

“Greek Bailout at Risk as Party Pushes Back,” reports Bloomberg.

“Greece Plunged Into Political Turmoil Over Austerity Measures,” chimes The New York Times.

“Greek government hit by resignations,” adds the FT.

We spilled a good deal of virtual ink in yesterday’s issue casting doubt and aspersions over the validity of the Greek bailout plan. The story, we reckoned, was at best an old one…at worst an irrelevant one. Bailout or no bailout, the Greeks are broke. The rest is merely noise.

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Who’s Still OK With Deficit Spending Now?

I had to laugh yesterday when the New York traders came in and didn’t sell the currencies right away… I said to myself, “Self, maybe the ‘big boys’ read the Pfennig and now know that I’ve uncovered their ‘game,’ so they have to lay low for a while!” HA! Whatever the case, the currencies held their gains most of the day, and even added on in some cases.

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Home Prices Keep Falling

Good day… Should be an interesting week, as the ECOFIN people meet and Greece is still working on their debt and… this will be my first full week of work in over a month, so all in all, pretty interesting!

What I also found interesting on Friday was the price action of silver… I don’t know if you follow silver or not… I do — very closely, I might add! But silver was outperforming gold by a long shot, rising over $1 on the day, which you don’t normally see in the silver price action. My colleague Aaron yelled over the desk to ask me what was going on with silver, as he too watches it closely… I couldn’t really find anything out there, so the thought came to me very quickly that silver must be playing “catch-up”…

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Weekly Jobs Data is Positive, Pushing the Dollar Lower

As mentioned in yesterday’s Pfennig, we had a long list of data released yesterday, and most of the numbers indicated that the US economy may be picking up a bit of steam. Producer prices came in right where they were expected, increasing 0.3% MOM and 5.7% YOY. The ‘core’ figure, (ex food and energy) is the one the Feds monitor and both showed modest increases over last month. The biggest surprise came in the form of the Empire Manufacturing number which came in at 9.53 on December versus 3.00 last month. This number reflects manufacturing activity in the NY region, but has a history of being very volatile and therefore an unreliable indicator of future manufacturing growth.

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New and Improved Jobs Plan

Front and center this morning, I want to make a public service announcement, and make every aware that The US has received specific and credible intelligence showing al Qaeda militants in Pakistan may be preparing to carry out car bombings in Washington, D.C., and New York City, timed to coincide with the 10-year anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks. Be careful out there!

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