A decade ago, I concluded that we were in the early stages of a secular bear market, and that investors needed to adjust their risk postures accordingly. Back in December 2003, I penned a piece for the Stock Trader’s Almanac, titled Managing the Very, Very Long Term, based on this blog post from November 2003.
[Read more...]Record Highs Despite Epic Lows
March 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment
Three cheers for the Dow Jones Industrial Average!…or four, if you like.
Since setting its first new record high in more than four years last week, the beloved Blue Chips have marched ahead to six more record-high closes. In all, the Dow has advanced ten straight days — the longest winning streak since 1996!
[Read more...]How Three Neighbors Got Gas
March 15, 2013 by Leave a Comment
I live out in the country. Among my few neighbors is a man we like to call “Mr. Mow-it-All.” This guy has the most perfect lawn you will ever see. He mows religiously when the grass is green. We see him almost daily out there on his zero-turn John Deere riding mower, keeping his lawn looking like Pebble Beach.
[Read more...]Markets Not Meddlers
March 14, 2013 by Leave a Comment
Stocks are still climbing. The Dow was up over 14,500 last we checked, buoyed, say the papers, by some encouraging jobs numbers. Here’s The Financial Times, abusing its readers with the details:
Overall, US equity markets rose by midday, boosted by better than expected jobless claims.
[Read more...]China’s Debt Bomb
March 14, 2013 by Leave a Comment
China seems to do everything big. It has the largest power station in the world and the longest high-speed railway line. It also has the world’s largest public bathroom (which can hold over 1,000 people) and the world’s largest pyramid.
So when it came to attempts to pull its floundering economy out of the muck, the Chinese went big. Economist Ben Simpfendorfer writes that China’s total credit stimulus in the four years since 2009 was worth $11 trillion. “Enough to buy the world’s entire oil supply for three consecutive years,” Simpfendorfer writes, “even with oil prices at above $100 a barrel.”
[Read more...]The Kabuki Theatre of Demopublicans, Part II
March 12, 2013 by Leave a Comment
A conversation with Doug Casey
The Gold Report: In the conversation titled On 2013, you say 2013 will be ugly, but merely a warm-up for 2014. Yet the economic trends appear to be positive: the end of quantitative easing by year-end, increased domestic oil and gas production resulting in inexpensive energy for decades to come, more manufacturing jobs, and less unemployment. Is this slow-growing economic recovery masking the effects of the deficit and unfunded liabilities, thus allowing politicians to kick the can further down the road? Why do you think 2013 and 2014 will be so bad?
[Read more...]The Kabuki Theatre of Demopublicans, Part I
March 11, 2013 by Leave a Comment
Doug Casey’s latest book, Totally Incorrect, gathers his iconoclastic views in a tidy package to stimulate and possibly dismay readers. In an interview with The Gold Report, Doug elaborates on some of his most radical ideas and offers his view of where the markets are likely to head in 2013.
[Read more...]Why Central Planning Fails
March 6, 2013 by Leave a Comment
The Dow is still rising. It rose another 38 points yesterday… apparently headed for a new record high.
Gold is dawdling.
We’re still thinking about how so many smart people came to believe things that aren’t true. Krugman, Stiglitz, Friedman, Bernanke — all seem to have a simpleton’s view of how the world works. They believe they can manipulate the future and make it better. Not just for themselves, but for everyone. Where did such a silly idea come from?
[Read more...]In Istanbul: The Rise & Fall of Society
March 4, 2013 by Leave a Comment
It’s Istanbul, not Constantinople, as the song goes. In this history is an omen for any powerful state (read: the U.S.). A somewhat obscure essayist knew all about it back in 1959. His little book deserves wider circulation. Below, we’ll take a look.
Constantinople was once the seat of a vast, rich empire. The successor to Rome, it ruled over a land that stretched from the Caucasus to the Adriatic, from the Danube to the Sahara. The Dark Ages were dark only if you ignore the flourishing civilization on the Bosporus.
[Read more...]
Amazing Gizmos but Depleted Capital
Americans today live like there’s no tomorrow. You can see this in the data regarding retirement. People behave like they will never retire, and the prophecy is self-fulfilling. Under these conditions, they won’t.
A new survey shows that 57% of households have less than $25,000 in total household savings and investments. And the trend line looks terrible and is getting worse.
[Read more...]Click for detailed story