The new regional automotive sales lines are being drawn, with very different outcomes in Asia and the US. Toyota, even despite its recall issues, had the largest increase in its domestic auto sales in 38 years. Chinese automakers also saw sales increase dramatically. This, of course, while sales in the US were slower last month than they’ve been in about three decades.
[Read more...]Lengthy Recession: The Real Contribution of Modern Economics
August 31, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Why don’t people borrow?
Because it’s not a liquidity problem. It’s a debt problem. A solvency problem. And it won’t go away by making more cash and credit available. Instead, all those bad decisions, bad loans, and bad investments have to be cleaned up. And that takes time. And while the economy is de-leveraging, people are becoming more cautious…more risk-averse…more modest in their expectations.
[Read more...]The Best Way to Bet on America
August 31, 2010 By Leave a Comment
There is lots of ugly economic news out there, but one key bright spot is world trade. In the US, one particular industry will enjoy windfall profits from exports this year. That industry is agriculture.
In 2009, world trade took a big hit in the wake of the financial crisis. Global exports fell 12%. Governments tried to protect their home teams and a wave of tariffs and other protectionist measures followed. This was what happened during the Great Depression, too, as the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act raised tariffs on more than 900 goods.
[Read more...]Figuring out the Real Importance of Gold
August 30, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Gold remains in high demand among individual investors, hedge funds, and central banks all swapping cash for the yellow metal. This past weekend, an FT reportage looked into what the latest money flows into gold can tell us about it’s real importance.
Among others, the Financial Times spoke with Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul:
[Read more...]Betting on the Chinese Consumer
August 26, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Anthony Bolton is making a big bet on the Chinese consumer.
You may never have heard the name before, but Bolton was one of the UK’s investing wizards. For 28 years, he racked up returns of 19.5% annualized. Since he had a long and superb track record and managed money for Fidelity, people called him “the Peter Lynch of Britain.� Lynch is a name you probably know. He also ran a Fidelity fund, Magellan, for many years, to spectacular success. (After he called it quits, he also co-wrote a couple of books that are now investing classics, One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street.)
[Read more...]Indian Markets Open the Foreign Floodgates
August 23, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Ease of access is a staple of market booms. It’s hard to imagine American stocks, for example, surviving these days without support from retail, institutional and international investors alike. In the same way, much of China’s incredible market boom is thanks to Hong Kong, whose exchange opens the gate to millions of investors who want a piece of the world’s hottest market.
[Read more...]China’s Huge Economy Perhaps Not as Solid as it Seems
August 20, 2010 By Leave a Comment
China now has the world’s second largest economy, but its GDP girth may not directly translate into as solid a market as one might guess. In the video below, Stratfor points out that China, despite impressive growth rates, is both export heavy and consistently dependent on razor-thin margins that can easily turn negative. This leaves the nation on a more precarious footing than developed countries with domestically-oriented economies. Until China makes that transition, Stratfor argues, it’ll have a tough time eliminating the persistent threat of social unrest in order to become a sustainable economic powerhouse.
[Read more...]Some Wages in US and India Moving Toward Parity
August 20, 2010 By Leave a Comment
The democratization of technology has allowed emerging nations access to the kinds of capabilities and knowhow that industrialized nations have long had, and, as a result, salaries in developing nations are rising alongside productivity, especially relative to the developed world.
This week, there’s an example of this global trend in call center operations. What’s historically been the one of the most obvious cost-advantaged jobs to export to India is now, since the broader economic downturn, a business opportunity showing new signs of competitive life when based in the US.
[Read more...]
Another Chinese Resource Grab
The stakes just got higher in the 3-D chess game China’s playing for natural resources. On one dimension, the Middle Kingdom is on the offensive. But on another, it’s playing strictly defense…
Beijing is ordering state-owned businesses to explore a bid for PotashCorp (POT), the Canadian fertilizer giant that’s already fending off a hostile bid from BHP Billiton, the Anglo-Australian mining giant.
[Read more...]