Both Germany and the IMF have cut their growth forecasts for this year. Germany for Germany, and the IMF for global growth… But both are cutting their forecasts because of the same thing… Eurozone weakness, due to the debt problems, which are pushing austerity measures, which will cut growth for certain!
[Read more...]China’s Cinderella Story
January 17, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Everyone knows that when the clock strikes midnight for Cinderella, the carriage turns back into a pumpkin, the horse into mice and the jeweled gown into rags. The spell is broken and reality returns. I keep thinking of China in this context.
One of the big questions of the year is whether China blows up or not. Hard landing or soft? When will the clock strike midnight on the Chinese? Things are slowing down, and it feels like it’s getting late.
[Read more...]The Importance of “Ground Truth”
December 20, 2011 By Leave a Comment
GlobalPost is an online news organization dedicated to the idea of “ground truth.” It’s a simple concept. Say you have a satellite image. And then you send a person there to verify it. The latter is ground truth. It is a person on the ground, making a firsthand observation. GlobalPost has adopted this concept as its mission.
[Read more...]US Markets are Relatively Stagnant Despite Bursts of Volatility
December 12, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The financial markets are serving up more static than an AM radio station along some forlorn stretch of Route 66. Every once in a while, you think you can discern something recognizable…you think you can make out something that sounds vaguely familiar. A moment later, it’s all static again.
[Read more...]Time to Take the “Emerging” Out of Emerging Markets
December 1, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Time to Take the “Emerging” Out of Emerging Markets
by Jason Jenkins, Investment U Research
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Water – Still Blue Gold
November 28, 2011 By Leave a Comment
I was in Bangkok while the floods were raging. I also visited Cambodia. The floods were in the news there as well. Though it did not affect Phnom Penh, where I was, the remote villages were dealing with a lot of water.
That’s the curious thing about water. There always seems to be either too much of it or not enough. What follows is another look at my favorite commodity and the opportunities of investing in it.
[Read more...]Thailand: 7,500 Miles From Greece…and Loving It!
November 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment
I almost cancelled my trip to Bangkok. I’m glad I didn’t.
As most folks are probably aware, Bangkok has been under a deluge. Floodwaters engulfed the place and brought everyday life and commerce to a halt.
A local contact here in Bangkok warned me not to come. But I went anyway…
[Read more...]Winning Ideas in a Losing Market
November 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment
We both reached for the check. “No, no, I invited you,” I said. “I’ll pay.” But then my guest made an offer I couldn’t refuse.
“Come on, we’re in markets. Let’s flip for it.”
Well, how could I resist that? Everyone in markets — from careful investor to highflying speculator — learns to live with chance, and even to relish it. It’s part of the thrill of markets (and life); you just never know how things might play out.
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It May Take a Dragon to Breathe Fire Into Markets
At the Cambridge House’s Vancouver Resource Investment Conference this week, I am part of a special debate on whether China will boom or bust with bestselling author Gordon G. Chang. The title of Chang’s book, The Coming Collapse of China, states his position quite clearly and I look forward to the intellectual challenge of convincing him otherwise.
[Read more...]