Strong Chinese Exports Cause Aussie Dollar to Soar

Yesterday’s price action in the currencies versus the dollar was a drag, man… We did, however, see the higher yielding currencies begin to move away from the pack of currencies led by the euro (EUR). That move higher by the likes of Australia (AUD), Brazil (BRL), South Africa (ZAR), and others, carried over through the overnight sessions, so, as we start today, they are stronger versus the dollar… In fact, the Aussie dollar is near a 7-week high this morning.

US Credit Rating: Who Will be the First to Downgrade?

During World War II, there was a saying, that, “loose lips, sink ships”… I think Greek Prime Minister, George Papandreou, should have taken those words to heart yesterday… You see, the currencies, led by the beleaguered euro (EUR), were rallying, and the single unit was nearing 1.37, when Papandreou made a statement that sunk the rally’s ship… He said, “Greece’s debt problems could soon spread to the rest of Europe and mean a weaker euro”

European Monetary Fund: You Heard it Here First

Well… After a couple of weeks of waiting, and wondering if it was going to print or not… There was a very nice article in The Wall Street Journal on Saturday that featured… Me! And my Pfennig! I’m sure that most of you missed it, so if by chance you would want to read what Jeff Opdyke had to say about me and the Pfennig… Click here.

Deutsche Bank Rating Downgraded

All the euphoria about the end of the euro (EUR) selling got deep-sixed yesterday on two counts… 1. The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to extend stimulus measures, which led the markets to believe that the ECB would remain on hold with their interest rates, and once again, the markets believed that the US would begin to raise rates before the ECB… 2. Moody’s downgraded Deutsche Bank (Germany’s largest bank).

Greek Spending Cuts Lead to Civil Unrest

What a day the currencies had yesterday! The euro (EUR) gained ground all the way back to 1.3730 (but saw some profit taking at the end of the day) and all the other currencies followed in step… Now… There’s two ways to look at this… Either the euro is like a star that’s getting ready to burn out… (It always shines brightest before it burns out), or… It’s like a star that had been covered up by another planet, and is coming back into view!

GDP and Dollar Growth: It’s All Happening in Australia

I have to say front and center this morning, that while it may have taken the currency traders half a day to realize that Australia had raised rates, they finally began pushing the Aussie dollar (AUD) higher versus the green/peachback. I was beginning to think that I would have egg all over my face again, when the Aussie dollar didn’t respond right away… But it was all right on the night.

US Traders Dislike Greek Bailout Package

Well, it didn’t take long for me to get the emails started telling me how wrong I am, again… WOW! Of course, I wonder where these people have been the last nine years, as when nine years ago I was the first writer to issue a whitepaper calling for the long-term downtrend for the dollar… Or, in 2002, when everyone was writing off the euro (EUR), I wrote the whitepaper, “The Year of the Euro”… Or in, 2005, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro… But not me… Or, in 2008, when everyone called for the collapse of the euro… But not me…

Dollar Falls As Bernanke Sees Rates Remaining Low

We finally got a bit of the volatility we’ve been looking for yesterday, as the markets moved dramatically as the Fed Chief testified before congress. But overnight the Asians had a different opinion and moved the dollar back up. So the currency markets were pretty much like a roller coaster ride, moving dramatically up and down but ending up pretty much right back where we started. I’ll begin where we left off yesterday, the Fed Chairman’s testimony to the House Financial Services committee.

Dollar Falters Overnight on Interest Rate Speculation

It can be a struggle to find things to write about when the markets aren’t moving much. That has been the case with the currency markets over the past few days, as the dollar has been trading in a fairly tight range. It felt like the dollar had the possibility to break out of this range yesterday, as we got a couple of different reports that looked to push the dollar higher.

Long Term US Dollar Trends: Nowhere But Down

Well… Here we are this morning, the currencies have basically remained stalled, with only the “higher yielders” making any headway, albeit small headway.

The non-dollar currencies saw a bit of selling yesterday morning, after I signed off, but have rebounded a bit in the overnight markets. There’s a feeling among us here on the trading desk that we’re about to break out here… It’s either going to be a break out to the high side or the low side… But I doubt that we’re going to remain in these tight ranges for too much longer. But, that’s just my opinion, of course. I could be wrong!

Japanese Investment Trusts To Buy Aussie Dollars?

Front and center this morning consumer prices rose 0.2% in January, equaling the increases in December and November. Market expectations going into the report had been for a slightly larger 0.3% rise. Core prices surprisingly fell 0.1% in January following the 0.1% rise recorded in December and the flat reading in November. On a year-over-year basis, the overall CPI index rose 2.6% in December.

Fed Raises Discount Rate

Front and center this morning… I’m sure you all heard that the Fed, in a surprise move, raised their discount rate 1/4 point to 0.75%… This really put the currency guys in a tizzy, and they began to earnestly buy dollars the rest of the day… They went at it hard, and didn’t stop until the euro (EUR) was sitting around 1.3475.