The Central Bank Stock Market Indicator

“Bernanke comments keep equities in check,” says a headline in The Financial Times.

Sure enough. The Dow ended down again – 21 points down. It’s been going down for five weeks. But it’s still above 12,000. So there’s nothing to be alarmed about.

What did Ben Bernanke say? Not much really. He allowed as to how the economy was not as strong as he had hoped. But he said things were getting better. And he didn’t mention QE3.

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The Global Economy is a Very Sick Patient

The following interview was first published in The Edge Singapore on May 30, 2011 by Assif Shameen.

Richard Duncan, author of the seminal The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures, an international bestseller that predicted the recent global economic crisis with extraordinary accuracy, commands a lot of respect among Asian policymakers. Armed with a Master’s degree in international finance, the affable American economist is a veteran of the region.

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Don’t Turn Out the Lights on Commodities Just Yet

The prices for many commodities suffered the worst week in recent memory last week. Oil prices dipped below $100 per barrel, gold fell below $1,500 an ounce and silver gave back much of the past month’s gains by falling to the $35 an ounce level. The prices for other commodities such as sugar, tin, nickel, aluminum, lead and copper also pulled back.

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Birth of the Debt Culture

Once US dollars ceased to be convertible into gold at the beginning of the 1970s, there was no longer any constraint on the amount of dollar-denominated debt that could be created by the Federal Reserve system or the Treasury Department, or, for that matter, the private sector. For the next decade, fear of inflation and the Fed’s still relatively tight control over the financial sector kept credit growth relatively constrained. Beginning in the early 1980s, however, a flood of imports into the United States began to profoundly affect the economy. By circumventing many of the domestic bottlenecks that had caused high rates of inflation, this influx kept prices in check. It also quickly created a large trade deficit that was funded by foreign capital inflows. Those inflows loosened credit conditions in the United States. As those changes were taking place, the deregulation of the banking industry was significantly reducing the Fed’s control over credit creation. When imports continued to surge, the stage was set for an explosion of credit creation.

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The US Federal Reserve: A Rich History of Financial Folly

Ehow.com relates a piece of history in that “Since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, the money supply had increased 240 percent from 1913 to 1920, because of a relaxed gold standard, and prices had risen by an identical amount.”

Gaahhh! Prices rising 240%! In seven years, the money supply increased 240%, meaning it more than doubled, as did prices! No wonder they had a recession!

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The ‘Flations – Part II

Inflation versus deflation discussions are the rule for columnists, economists and BubbleTV. This false distinction is potentially harmful for investors and shoppers who think they must decide between the two, then act. Inflation and deflation act contemporaneously. The relative movement of what is inflating and what is deflating (e.g., common stocks vs. gas, bonds vs. bread) influences, and possibly changes, the way we live.

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Barry Ritholtz: We’re in Economic Purgatory

Barry Ritholtz, editor of The Big Picture blog and two-time Agora Financial Investment Symposium speaker, describes to Forbes how the failed recovery is like economic purgatory… and is at least devoid of new hiring among other problems. With interest rates essentially at zero the Federal Reserve has “painted themselves into a corner” and are well on the way to “making cash trash.”

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Barry Ritholtz: We’re in Economic Purgatory

Barry Ritholtz, editor of The Big Picture blog and two-time Agora Financial Investment Symposium speaker, describes to Forbes how the failed recovery is like economic purgatory… and is at least devoid of new hiring among other problems. With interest rates essentially at zero the Federal Reserve has “painted themselves into a corner” and are well on the way to “making cash trash.”

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Jim Rogers: Federal Reserve is “Pawn Shop? for Dicey Loans

In a recent interview, Quantum Fund co-founder and investment biker Jim Rogers explains how he sees the Federal Reserve as a pawn shop for dicey loans… here's the statement, in his own words:

“The man [Bernanke] has taken $400 billion, $400 billion, onto the Federal Reserve’s balance sheets, of dicey loans at best. I mean he’s turning the Federal Reserve into a pawn shop. You have something bad, that you can’t sell, take it to the Federal Reserve, he’ll lend you treasury bills against it, or treasury bonds against it. Now someday somebody’s got to pay for that and you know who the somebody is? My little girl, you, me, I mean, it’s going to be the American taxpayer that’s going to have to pay for this…”

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