Stay Short!

The global economic backdrop continues to provide many reasons to sell stocks, but very few reasons to buy them — gold stocks being one of the few exceptions.

The weight of US economic data points to a recessionary environment over the next few quarters. Analysts have not cut their 2011 and 2012 earnings estimates far enough to reflect the recent dramatic deterioration in economic conditions.

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No Stopping the Money Creation Machine

Unemployment is a favorite topic of conversation of late, especially among those who are unemployed. I assume it gives them something to do other than watch their lives going down the toilet as the federal government continues with unbelievable levels of deficit-spending and the Federal Reserve continues to create staggeringly more money so that it can be borrowed by the government and then spent, all of which makes prices rise.

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An Economy Not Built on Solid Ground

Faced with crisis, the White House and Congress turned to fiscal stimulus that's not only itself unsustainable, but that's also unable to provide a firm foundation for lasting recovery.

Sooner or later, the US will have to pay the piper in the form of reduced government services, some more needed than others, and substantially higher taxes for households and businesses. This is one trillion-plus-dollar beast that could stand to benefit from a leak.

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An Economy Not Built on Solid Ground

Faced with crisis, the White House and Congress turned to fiscal stimulus that's not only itself unsustainable, but that's also unable to provide a firm foundation for lasting recovery.

Sooner or later, the US will have to pay the piper in the form of reduced government services, some more needed than others, and substantially higher taxes for households and businesses. This is one trillion-plus-dollar beast that could stand to benefit from a leak.

[Read more...]

Path to Economic Recovery Filled With Lethal Obstacles

We just stepped off the plane… Well have to catch our breath and open our eyes before we have anything to say about China…

In the meantime, lets look back at what is happening in Europe and America.

And we will begin by thanking Paul Krugman, economiste ordinaire at The New York Times.

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An Even Better Trade of the Decade, Part III

The final installment of our speech in Las Vegas…on why you cant engineer a genuine recovery…and why GDP is just a number…and why China will blow up…

The problem with trying to engineer a recovery is the same problem with all central planning it substitutes the honest signals from the marketplace with imposters. For example, instead of getting the message that they need to conduct their business in a different way, the banks get the idea that the feds will always bail them out…and automakers thanks to the Cash for Clunkers program may get the idea that there is more demand than there really is…and everyone could get the idea that the economy is healthier than it really is, thanks to the feds $1.5 trillion deficits.

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Can India Get Soaring Food Inflation Rates Under Control?

India’s inflation in food prices has been soaring lately — holding for weeks above 17 percent — due to a combination of factors including the weakest monsoon rains in nearly 40 years, new taxes on gasoline and diesel, and increased excise taxes on a wide variety of products.

From BusinessWeek:

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