Defying Gold’s Slump

Gold has gained more than $30 over the weekend. In the early morning hours, the price of the yellow metal is at $1,425 and climbing. And the bets are on the table, Bloomberg reports:

Hedge Fund Gold Wagers Defy Worst Slump in 33 Years…

Undeterred by last week’s crash, some big names are getting back into gold. Nevermind the two-day, 13% drop. These guys want in on the action right now…

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Don’t Buy Gold

Gold’s dropping. You want to buy.

But wait just a minute…

Is your desire to buy gold now based on reasonable analysis of market conditions? Or is it simply an emotional reaction to the selloff?

Let’s turn to one of your letters for some answers:

“Short-term I can understand your premise on gold,” writes a somewhat reasonable reader.

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Gold Sell-off Update: 4 Things Investors Need to Know

So far, 2013 isn’t proving much fun, despite fresh eurozone crisis, plus ongoing attacks on the value of currency by central banks everywhere.

How come? Money managers have clearly grown tired of the financial crisis, if not blase. After a full decade of year-on-year gains, gold’s drop is a natural outcome, and by no means does this fall undermine gold’s safe haven appeal. It may well, however, be costing you money you’d really rather not lose.

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Financial Refuge From Mutually Assured Destruction

Uh-oh. “The moment of explosion is approaching fast,” says an official from the North Korean military. The formal statement from a spokesman for the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army read as follows:

“We formally inform the White House and Pentagon that the ever-escalating U.S. hostile policy toward the DPRK [North Korea] and its reckless nuclear threat will be smashed by the strong will of all the united service personnel and people and cutting-edge smaller, lighter and diversified nuclear strike means of the DPRK and that the merciless operation of its revolutionary armed forces in this regard has been finally examined and ratified.”

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When It Comes to Gold, Stick to the Facts

Gold dipped below $1,600 last week, falling to a six-month low, much to the chagrin of gold investors. I find the timing of the correction peculiar, given the G20 Finance Ministers Meeting taking place this weekend. There’s been a growing debate over Japan’s move to devalue its currency to stimulate growth, with reaction from the G-7 leaders stating that “domestic economic policies must not be used to target currencies,” reports Reuters.

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Gold Is Money: Central Bank Actions Send Investors a Clear Message

Germany recently made big news by announcing its plan to bring home part of its massive gold reserves. By retrieving 300 tons from New York and all 374 tons from Paris, 19% of its holdings – $36 billion worth – will be repatriated. By 2020, Deutsche Bundesbank expects to have 50% of its gold reserves stored in its Frankfurt vaults.

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A Look Forward at the Final Stage of the Gold Bull Market

“Is gold going vertical?�

The question was put to us by our Family Office strategist, Rob Marstrand.

“We could be getting to the final stage of this bull market faster than we thought,� he added.

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A Few TIPS on Inflation Protection

What a whacky, whacky world…

“Debt sales highlight abnormal conditions,� says the headline in yesterday’s Financial Times.

Abnormal? Freaky. Bizarre. Strange.

The latest auction of TIPS – US Treasury debt with inflation protection – produced a curiosity. Investors were willing to pay $105 for every $100 worth of inflation-protected notes.

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An Economic Standoff to Save the Neighborhood

I was in the living room, happily reading as the kids quietly watched a show on TV that was even more insipid than their usual choice of mesmerizing mindless pap.

I was thinking to myself, “How pleasant! No noise! No strife! No arguing! No social workers telling me I have to do this for the kids, or do that for the kids, or stop doing this to the kids, or stop doing that to the kids!�

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Buying Gold Before the “Blow Off Phase�

An interesting graph of “a useful road map to any secular bull market� appeared in Casey’s Daily Dispatch. It was a graph showing how investment interest in a developing bubble classically proceeds through four stages.

First, there is the Stealth Phase where nobody is paying attention to the undervalued asset except for a few forward-thinkers who are buying, which I figure is probably because they are hip to the Austrian school of economics.

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