Stern Reality Check for Gold Naysayers

Needless to say, Thursday was nothing short of an orgasmic day for Gold bears and Dollar bulls. The precious metals complex crumbled along with the Euro, while the greenback was higher. In fact, it was such a bad day that Gold officially lost its safe-haven status, according to CNBC. This was also noted by Elliot Wave and The Business Insider. All proclaimed that Gold was no safe haven. (more...)

Stern Reality Check for Gold Naysayers

Needless to say, Thursday was nothing short of an orgasmic day for Gold bears and Dollar bulls. The precious metals complex crumbled along with the Euro, while the greenback was higher. In fact, it was such a bad day that Gold officially lost its safe-haven status, according to CNBC. This was also noted by Elliot Wave and The Business Insider. All proclaimed that Gold was no safe haven. (more...)

Crude Oil Market Still Facing Massive Glut

The Great Recession had quite an impact on the crude oil market, with demand and prices plunging in late-2008 and early-2009. And even though the global recovery got underway during the second half of last year, this blow to the crude oil market is going to continue to be felt for some time, as the fundamental picture remains quite weak. (more...)

2010 Market Outlook

At the start of every year we put together our best research and analysis and then formulate a forecast based on the most likely outcomes. Unlike others who simply say what they think will happen, we sit down and analyze the fundamental, technical and sentiment evidence and opine on what is most likely to happen, what might happen and what won't happen. We take a lot of pride in this, as we believe we are one of the few that puts forth actionable research and makes it available to the public. (more...)

Commodities 2010: Five Themes to Drive Commodity Markets This Year

The economic and financial crisis of 2008-09 was so significant that its consequences for a very long time have been dominating markets, including those of commodities. As a result, most asset classes have moved largely in sync for most of the past year, inducing unprecedentedly high correlations between, for example, commodities on the one side and equities, bonds and the dollar on the other. Indeed, market focus has so far primarily been on one common factor: the stance of the global business cycle. For commodities, this meant that the focal point became the prospects of a recovery in the global economy and, in turn, a come-back of demand for raw materials. (more...)

2010 Silver Outlook: Silver May Have Another Bright Year in 2010

We think silver is uniquely positioned to continue its stellar rally in 2010. Valuations compared to gold remain extremely attractive, demand from the investment community is robust and the metal's industrial demand will rise as the global economy recovers. Our base case is that silver has potential to trade well above $20 in the year ahead. (more...)

2010 Gold Outlook: Gold May Lose Its Luster in 2010

Gold prices surged higher in 2009 as part of broad commodity rally and USD decline, culminating in a classic parabolic advance in October/November, followed by a 10+% collapse in December. Given ongoing concerns over sovereign and corporate debt burdens globally, we think gold prices are most likely to remain relatively elevated, and we do not expect gold prices to see much below the $850/900/oz. level. By the same token, we anticipate an extremely benign inflation environment in 2010 together with a broadly stable, though relatively weak, USD, which should work to limit gold's upside to the $1200/1250 zone. (more...)

GOLD Prices: Has The Rally Run Out of Steam?

After outperforming all major asset classes with a massive 20% advance in the past two months, gold prices have given back about one-quarter of that gain over the past week. Stronger-than-expected U.S. employment data for November and disappointing economic news in Japan and other parts of the world have led to the recent selling pressure. We believe that the current setback will prove only temporary, with the price of the yellow metal embarking on a new leg up in the near term. Looking out to 2010, however, the story will be different, as some of the favourable fundamentals underpinning gold prices will fade to some extent, taking the price of gold down to a new plateau. To the extent that prices rebound from their current level of about US$1125 per ounce, the more severe the medium-term adjustment is likely to be. (more...)

Gold: History and Forecast

Let's start the technical story since it succeeded to build a technical base in the year 2005 from 415.00 zones, where the impulsive upside wave has started as seen on the weekly chart below. This chart explains how gold is preceding the grand fifth wave after forming 3 typical waves already when it placed the recorded high in March-2008 at $ 1035.00 per ounce. (more...)

Gold Contrarians Will Get Killed

In the last ten years, the financial world has experienced quite a few bubbles. Ten years ago there was the tech bubble. Then the housing bubble. And then the credit bubble. There was an Oil bubble too. With all these bubbles popping up, so to has an increase in bubble calling and contrarian thinking. As a result, sentiment analysis has become more popular. (more...)

Gold, Oil, and Gas – And What You Should Be Watching For

There was a time not so long ago on this planet that obtaining information on gold, be it fundamental, technical or quantitive was a daunting task. From a technical price perspective, if you wanted to look at a chart you had two choices. You could buy the Wall St Journal, get the price, and then draw (yes draw) your price chart. (more...)

Gold Trading: Playing the Moving Average and Momentum Ratios

For those enamored of the current bullish moves in the Gold market, there's still plenty of reason the believe that the yellow Gold bus has more than enough gas in its tank to make the trip up to the next important Fibonacci extension ratio without too much difficulty.