The collapse of 2008 remains fresh in mind. And yes, while collapse is the most overused word in the financial markets (next to bubble), 2008 was indeed a collapse for everything. Our beloved gold stock sector plunged roughly 70% in only three months. This collapse hangs in the back of the psyche each time global trouble intensifies and the gold stocks selloff. In the last week or so I've received many emails from subscribers who are worried about a Euro crash and a potential repeat of 2008. Let me explain why there is absolutely no need to worry if you own the gold stocks. [Read more...]

The collapse of 2008 remains fresh in mind. And yes, while collapse is the most overused word in the financial markets (next to bubble), 2008 was indeed a collapse for everything. Our beloved gold stock sector plunged roughly 70% in only three months. This collapse hangs in the back of the psyche each time global trouble intensifies and the gold stocks selloff. In the last week or so I've received many emails from subscribers who are worried about a Euro crash and a potential repeat of 2008. Let me explain why there is absolutely no need to worry if you own the gold stocks. [Read more...]

A cup and handle pattern is a bullish continuation pattern that represents a period of consolidation followed by an eventual breakout, which is the continuation of the previous trend. Typically these patterns last months and not weeks or days. Cup and handle patterns also entail precise price targets. To find the price target, one measures the distance from the top to the bottom of the cup and then adds the distance to the top of the cup. In some cases analysts can use a logarithmic scale though its best to use a arithmetic scale. [Read more...]

When we first published this report in April, gold was hovering around $1,500/ounce. Amid all the political wrangling in Washington about raising the debt ceiling and narrowing the budget deficit, gold rose further to $1,664/ounce through August 5. After Standard & Poor's downgraded the United States' credit rating from AAA to AA+ on August 5, gold jumped about $55/ounce to $1,719/ounce on August 8. Investors' concerns about the validity and efficacy of the debt deal, uncertainty about further deficit reduction suggestions that will be suggested by the Super Congressional Committee, continued dollar weakness and the worsening of the European debt crisis all appear to have helped push gold even higher since then to around $1,871/ounce as of this writing. [Read more...]

In our most recent commentary we wrote about the relative strength in the gold equities. Gold equities have not only bucked the downtrend in the equity markets but in relative terms are breaking to new highs against equity indices. In the chart below we plot precious metals prices, GDX versus the Morgan Stanley World Index and GDX versus the S&P 500. We highlight how each performed during bear markets. Other than in the crash in 2008, precious metals and the equities have performed quite well during times of struggle for conventional stocks.

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Savy and experienced market technicans and traders will laud the concept and importance of relative strength. Relative strength analysis can be used on any time frame. On large time frames it can tell us which sectors could be future leaders. On shorter time frames it can also provide insight to the future. In this analysis we examine the relative strength of the gold stocks today and compare it to the past as some important insights can be gleaned. [Read more...]