Why Economic Growth Will Continue to Disappoint in 2012

Tutto va bene…

That was what the crew told passengers on the Costa Concordia just before it sank.

And it was what the crew of the USS America — the biggest cruise ship of all — were telling passengers last week.

Tutto va bene.

Trouble was, tutto was not going as bene as they claimed. Instead, the ship is sinking.

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The Basic Problem With the Fed

We had to wait five years. But it turns out our suspicion that the Federal Reserve is clueless, at best, is true. We know because we read it in The New York Times.

Welcome to another Friday the 13th… Where if things aren’t exactly scary, they’re definitely surreal.

The Fed performed its ritual year-opening document purge overnight… unveiling the transcripts from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings in 2006.

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The Power of “Q”

Say what you will about John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946). However loathed (or loved) as an economist, he was, undeniably, a great investor. Keynes (pronounced “canes”) piloted the endowment fund of King’s College through the dark years of the Great Depression. He steered the fund to 10-fold gains, excluding income (which the college spent).

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Apartment REITS: A Pocket of Strength in a Down Housing Market

Housing may still be down for the count but there is one area of the real estate market that has become a pocket of strength. It’s apartment-based REITS.

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A View of the Long-Term Trends in the Housing Market

“And they shall grind the face of the poor…” — Isaiah

The markets were closed yesterday. Which was a good thing. The lights were out in Congress. Economists went to barbecues. Central bankers stayed home with their families. And investors didn’t bother to check their blackberries to find the latest prices.

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Irish Property Market Seeks Divine Intervention

“And we pray for Ireland’s financial situation…and all the people who suffer because of it.”

Priests do not usually get involved in political economics. But among the prayers for the dead, the sick, the unhappy and the incompetent at St. Patrick’s cathedral on Sunday was an entreaty to the Almighty to intervene on behalf of Irish bond yields.

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When Bank Profits Hurt Home Sales

The US stock market posted another nice gain yesterday, as the US housing market recorded another dismal decline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for its part, added 110 points to 12,190. But the US housing market slipped deeper into the murky depths of uncharted territory.

Purchases of existing homes fell 3.8% in May from the prior month to an annual rate of 4.81 million homes. At that pace, sales this year would drop below last year’s 13-year low of 4.91 million.

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Perpetual Investor Confidence

Yesterday, the Dow rose 109 points. Gold went up $4. The 10-year US note is still trading below 3% yield and oil is still below $95.

So, what’s new? The markets seem still to be wondering…waiting…watching to see what happens – just as we are.

The Greek premier won a confidence vote in parliament. That seemed to give investors some confidence. The idea is that if the Greeks can act like they know what they’re doing, the rest of Europe can give them some more money.

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Declining House Prices Weigh Heavily on Underwater Homeowners

It is still unclear which way the market is going. If only they made it easier for us!

But yesterday, the Dow took a 279-point hit. Oil lost $2, closing at $100. Gold rose $6.

And look at this… The yield on the 10-year note sank below 3%. Go figure. Inflation is at 5%…and people still lend the feds money for ten years at only 3%.

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