Bar Stool Wisdom from São Paulo

“One cannot overestimate the importance of that hotel bar,” says veteran journalist Mort Rosenblum in his handbook for foreign correspondents, Little Bunch of Madmen: Elements of Global Reporting.

The basic idea is that local intelligence has a remarkable tendency to collect in little pools in hotel bars where travelers and locals mix. You can learn a lot on a bar stool talking to a local or even chatting with another traveler just blowing through who you might not get otherwise.

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Bar Stool Wisdom from São Paulo

“One cannot overestimate the importance of that hotel bar,” says veteran journalist Mort Rosenblum in his handbook for foreign correspondents, Little Bunch of Madmen: Elements of Global Reporting.

The basic idea is that local intelligence has a remarkable tendency to collect in little pools in hotel bars where travelers and locals mix. You can learn a lot on a bar stool talking to a local or even chatting with another traveler just blowing through who you might not get otherwise.

[Read more...]

How to Invest With a Declining US Dollar

Yesterday, we got a glimpse.

Yes, dear reader, we were on our way to Sea Island. We looked across the bridge at another island — Jekyll Island. You know Jekyll Island, don’t you? It’s where the monster was created…

A group of the nation’s richest, biggest, and most powerful bankers got together there — in secret — in November, 1910. They figured it was time to put in place a system that would make it a little easier for them to make money. Instead of competing head to head, without any backstop to protect them when things got rough, they decided to set up a central bank.

[Read more...]

How to Invest With a Declining US Dollar

Yesterday, we got a glimpse.

Yes, dear reader, we were on our way to Sea Island. We looked across the bridge at another island — Jekyll Island. You know Jekyll Island, don’t you? It’s where the monster was created…

A group of the nation’s richest, biggest, and most powerful bankers got together there — in secret — in November, 1910. They figured it was time to put in place a system that would make it a little easier for them to make money. Instead of competing head to head, without any backstop to protect them when things got rough, they decided to set up a central bank.

[Read more...]

Is It Time to Buy a House?

Is it time to buy a house? Maybe…

This morning we received a bouquet of flowers. It was from the woman who just sold us a house in Baltimore. She sent the flowers to say ‘thanks.’

“We must have paid too much,” we said to Elizabeth. ”She likes us. She probably figures she was lucky to find such retarded buyers.”

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Is It Time to Buy a House?

Is it time to buy a house? Maybe…

This morning we received a bouquet of flowers. It was from the woman who just sold us a house in Baltimore. She sent the flowers to say ‘thanks.’

“We must have paid too much,” we said to Elizabeth. ”She likes us. She probably figures she was lucky to find such retarded buyers.”

[Read more...]

The Missing 13th Floor

“About eight years ago, I was going down the elevator of a hotel in Las Vegas with a friend of mine,” Arnaud Karsenti told me. “The elevator skipped the 13th floor. And my friend said to me, ‘How come there is no 13th floor? What a bunch of wasted space!’”

The lack of a 13th floor comes from the same fear that prevents people from walking under ladders or causes them to shiver when a black cat crosses their path. But Arnaud decided to make a business out of it. The idea is to find value where others fear to go.

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Buy a House!

A little more than a year ago, a very successful professional investor declared, “If you don’t own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one, and if you own two homes, buy a third and lend your relatives the money to buy a home.”

Since that declaration, house prices have continued drifting lower in most parts of the country. The Case-Shiller index of national home prices is down about 4% year over year. Even so, we’re betting this professional investor was merely early…not wrong. US housing isn’t just cheap; it is the cheapest it has been in more than 40 years. And when one considers the possibility that inflation may rear its head soon, housing looks even cheaper still.

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Counting on Millennial Homeownership

The report that got us started on this tangent this morning: Home prices in 20 U.S. metro areas are now as low as they were nine years ago, according to the just released Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices

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