The writings of H.L. Mencken — the Sage of Baltimore, the home of Agora Inc. — have been a constant companion for me since the start of my writing life. The brilliance, the language, the insight, the derring-do opinionating, the history, the astounding literacy — it’s all here, and it all flows seemingly without limit. All these features are combined in one mind and life, yet none of these features is the reason why it is important to read Mencken. The most important reason is that Mencken assists in the great struggle to free yourself from intellectual conventions and become a mature observer of the world.
[Read more...]It’s Not The End Of OPEC…But Might As Well Be
May 17, 2013 by Leave a Comment
If you could safely turn $8 dollars into $40, would you?
What about turning $800 into $4,000? Same question, right?
If you answered yes to those questions, which I’m sure you did, then you’re already onboard with half of today’s energy story.
That is, most American shale oil wells are set to payout at the odds above. You see, the average shale oil well costs anywhere from $5-10 million to drill, complete and put into production – let’s call that $8 million in total upfront cost. Once put in to production, though, the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) for a productive well could payout to the tune of $30-40 million.
[Read more...]U.S. Shale Gale vs. the Debt Leviathan
May 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment
The wind was blowing so hard on the banks of the River Thames we had to replay it a few times to hear correctly.
“The need for OPEC to…”
We turned up the volume some more…
“The need for OPEC to be a player in the U.S. oil market isn’t really there. We’re not going to be depending on them like we used to.”
[Read more...]A Grotesque Economic Experiment
May 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment
The newspapers and TV channels reported the Dow 15,000 story last week as though it were just a stepping stone on the way to 16,000… or 20,000… or 30,000.
Heck, the sky’s the limit!
Investors have reached a new level of bullishness. They’re borrowing again to buy stocks, confident that prices go in only one direction.
[Read more...]Investing in the spirit of Sextus Empiricus
May 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment
“Ah, here it is.”
The Wall Street Bar.
We were on Rua Jeronimo da Veiga in Sao Paulo’s Itaim Bibi district, “the new financial district,” in town.
The Wall Street Bar sports a replica of the Merrill Lynch bull from Lower Manhattan above its doorway. “Inside, beers are priced based on their popularity at evening,” Rocky explained. Rocky Vega has been providing guidance in our new partnership with the local independent research firm Empiricus. Rocky is also adept at addressing our desire to sample the local fare wherever we happen to travel.
[Read more...]Don’t Believe the Gloom-and-Doom Hype
May 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment
In my youth, I did several years in Hollywood. My mother, thankfully, never found out. I told her I was a contract killer for the Yakuza, or something, to spare her the truth. Initially, my job in Tinseltown was to act as a liaison between real scientists and studios that wanted to bring some accuracy to their portrayals of scientific issues in film and television.
[Read more...]This “Left For Dead” Industry Is Roaring Back
May 16, 2013 by Leave a Comment
How can you make money by investing in the stock market? It helps to go where the money is flowing. Along those lines, two of the strongest sectors of the current U.S. economy barely existed a few years ago.
In fact, one sector was left for dead (and I mean roadkill!) when the U.S. government effectively shut it down overnight in 2010. The other sector was rooted in then-novel technology that few people understood, and in which only visionaries saw the future.
[Read more...]Corporate Disappointment
May 13, 2013 by Leave a Comment
Will investors perpetually bid up an earnings stream that has peaked and may be on the verge of shrinking? We’re about to find out…
With first-quarter earnings season under way, expectations for earnings have rarely been higher. But there are many signs that corporate profits have peaked, including a surge in negative guidance from company management.
[Read more...]
A New Spin on the Oil War
One of the main stories not being told about today’s oil market is the next round of turbulence set for the Middle East. It’s the oil war scenario, but with a new spin.
Last year when Byron King and I attended the Platts Crude Oil Conference, a main takeaway was an interesting OPEC break-even chart that shows how much money OPEC nations need to keep their governments funded. Take a look:
[Read more...]Click for detailed story