Con-way Inc. (NYSE:CNW), the San Mateo, California-based provider of transportation, logistics, and supply-chain management services, recently missed consensus earnings estimates. Dan Amoss, Agora Financial's editor of the Strategic Short Report, shows how the small miss could still be an important chink in the armor of CNW investor confidence.
[Read more...]Are Investors Losing Faith in the So-Called “Recovery�?
July 7, 2010 By Leave a Comment
For the first time in eight trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a plus sign – up 57 points to 9,744. The last time the Dow achieved this increasingly rare feat was on June 23, when it gained five points to end the day at 10,298 – 554 points higher than yesterday's close.
[Read more...]The End of the Nominal Recovery
July 1, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Monetary and fiscal stimulus can halt a deflation spiral, but central banks and governments can't print purchasing power.
In other words, one year after the official end of the recession, the economy shows no signs of booming. Emergency Keynesian policy measures taken to keep the debt crisis from devolving into a 1930s deflationary spiral show signs of losing effectiveness, and the self reinforcing economic growth story is giving way to talk of a “double dip� recession, as trouble in Europe is expected to slow the US economy by the end of the year. Confidence in the resilience of the recovery is waning.
[Read more...]German Investor Confidence Declines
February 16, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Remember last week, when I told you about the 10-year Treasury auction results? I told you that the yield had to be driven higher by 7 BPS to attract investors… Well, that’s cotton candy compared to the news from the 30-year Treasury auction!
Let me put this as simply as possible… “Indirect buyers” are the foreign central banks, and they normally take down 40% of a Treasury Issue… Well, last week, they only took down 28% of the issue… Uh-Oh! But then, there were the “direct buyers” upping their participation in the auction to a record level of 24%!
[Read more...]US Dollar Rallies on Strong Economic Data
January 19, 2010 By Leave a Comment
I was reading a good, thoughtful story about how currency swings could be dying down, as we return to fundamentals. You know, me… I jumped from my chair, and click my heels together in joy! OK, I’m not physically able to do that any longer, so I did it in my mind! But a return to fundamentals? I’m all over that like a cheap suit! One of the fundamentals that the story highlighted that would be taken into consideration by traders, would be interest rate differentials… Which, I’ve always considered to be a strong reason to own a currency, but not the “end-all”…
[Read more...]A Recession of Fear
January 8, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Uh oh… The wind chill is 50 below in North Dakota. And the storm is headed our way.
What happened to global warming? This report from colleague Chris Hunter in Ireland, where we have our Family Office:
“Ireland is under snow – lots of it. The media have dubbed it the ‘Big Chill.’ It hasn’t been colder since 1962. I stupidly tried to drive to a nearby village yesterday evening in said snow and got my car stuck in a ditch.
[Read more...]“Aughts” Ruined by Wall Street
January 4, 2010 By Leave a Comment
We’re back in the USA after 15 years of living in Europe.
Bethesda is one of America’s wealthiest suburbs. Money from all over the nation rolls this way. The playing field is tilted in Bethesda’s direction.
“I was sitting in the Starbucks, having a cup of coffee,” Elizabeth reported. “One man next to me was on the phone. He was talking about some deal he had done with the US Army in Afghanistan. It sounded as though he was very happy with it. The man next to me on the other side was on the phone too. He was a jollier fellow, talking loudly about how much money he had made. I thought he was a stockbroker or something like that. Then, I realized he was talking about a contract with the government.”
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How to be a Successful Investor in an Immutable Marketplace
As the Labor Day holiday ended, so did the stock market's holiday from underlying economic trends. Last week, the stock market was all about “better than expected.� On the first day this new week, however, the market was all about “worse than hoped.�
Last week, for example, the stock market celebrated a loss of 54,000 jobs in August because the private sector added 67,000 jobs. Interpretation: the private sector is recovering. Earlier in the week, some “better than expected� reports on manufacturing and consumer sentiment inspired investors to add a few hundred points to the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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