Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Another week gone by! Another week closer to Tokyo!
The Dow dropped another 145 points yesterday. Gold rose $11.
Will stocks recover today? Or will they just keep going down?
We're not a soothsayer. We can't read the stars…or interpret the charts. Still, we don't mind taking a guess about the future from time to time. And don't bet on it, by the way…
[Read more...]The latest deficit projection from the Congressional Budget Office was conveniently revealed just prior to the close of business on Friday.
“Why so?” You ask suspiciously.
“Because,” we respond in a hushed tone.
The CBO’s latest numbers reveal that President Obama’s proposed fiscal 2011 budget would add $9.7 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. The White House projection is only slightly less staggering – $8.5 trillion.
[Read more...]In today’s edition of The Daily Reckoning, we turn our attention to the “Decade of No Returns” – aka, the “Lost Decade.” Students of recent financial history may recall that our friends over in Japan have already logged a couple of “lost” decades. Japanese workers still punch time clocks every day, but the national economy barely seems to notice. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Index has surrendered 73% of its value during the last twenty years.
[Read more...]There is not a lot of action in the markets. Most of the investment world is home for the holidays… At least, the investors are home. The pros – the bankers, for example – are celebrating the holidays in fancy resorts. They can afford it. It was a great year for the financial sector. After nearly going broke because of their reckless speculations, the bankers took money from the feds and went on to speculate some more…making huge profits. Bonuses for many of them were better than ever.
[Read more...]The days really are dwindling down to a very precious few. Tomorrow is Near Year’s Eve. And on Friday begins a new year…
What’s ahead?
We were right all along. Sort of. Kind of. It must have been two years ago that we looked into the future and thought we saw where we were headed.
[Read more...]We reported that the US government would need to roll over $2.5 trillion worth of debt next year. We probably erred. The number was right, but it was meant to be over the next two years. During the next two years also, worldwide, banks need to roll over $7 trillion. Whether it is over one year or two years, we’re talking big money.
[Read more...]What’s happening in the world of money is that the depression continues… You wouldn’t know it from reading the headlines or talking to economists. According to the official line, the US economy expanded 2.2% last quarter.
How is that possible? Well, here at The Daily Reckoning, we’ve invented a new word to describe it – ledgerdemain. Go ahead. Look it up. You won’t find it. But the word perfectly describes the practice of making things look like what they are not by using accounting tricks. Unemployment is over 10%…and apparently still rising. House prices are punky…probably anticipating an avalanche of new houses for sale, from the ‘hidden inventory’ of places that people would like to get rid of…if there were any buyers. And the typical consumer household is rediscovering thrift.
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Zen and the Art of Economy Repair
According to an article that appeared in The New York Times, written by Norihiro Kato, the Japanese have gotten good at sloughing off their worldly cares. Japan is no longer the world's number two economy; it was eclipsed this summer by China. But the Japanese are used to slippage. We all know the story of their 20-year economic decline; Japan's GDP actually peaked out about 15 years ago. It has been sliding ever since. That is only a part of the story. In terms of rice production, the Japanese have been downsizing for more than 40 years. Japan's population, too, grew by 1% per year from 1917 to 1977. It peaked out in 2005. There are fewer Japanese now than there were 5 years ago. If the trend continues, eventually there will be none.
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