The dollar stayed in the tight range in which it has been trading over the past week. The range of the dollar index over the past 5 days has been just 0.71%. Talk about stable markets! We had a plethora of data released here in the US yesterday, with most of the numbers coming in below expectations. The big number was third quarter GDP, which was reported at 2.6% compared to an estimate of 2.8%. While the number failed to reach economists upbeat estimates, it was slightly higher than the previous estimate of 2.5% growth. Personal consumption for the third quarter also came in below expectations with a 2.4% increase compared to predictions of a 2.9% rise. And the final piece of data in the GDP group, the GDP Price Index, rose 2.1% versus survey estimates of 2.3%.
[Read more...]Euro Rallies After EU Summit Sgreement
Last time I sat in for Chuck, the markets took us on quite a ride; but with the end of the year within sight, and most of the trading desks short-staffed, I don’t think we will see a lot of big positions being put on the books. Should be a fairly quiet couple of weeks to end out 2010… (Chuck would tell me I just jinxed any hopes of lower volatility!!)
[Read more...]Global Currencies Rally Against the US Dollar
Well… I’ve spent a lot of time this week talking about the rise in Treasury yields… Apparently the rise in yields wasn’t confined to Treasuries, as municipal bonds are getting whacked too… I saw that my friend and former colleague, David Galland, had this to say about the problems with the municipal bonds…
[Read more...]Markets React to Disappointing Jobs Data
Well… The cold fell over the dollar on Friday, as we saw something that has happened very often in the past two years, and that is a downright – no two-ways about it – convention reaction to the jobs data! First of all, the Jobs Jamboree turned sour when it was learned that US corporations only added 39,000 jobs in November… You may recall that on Friday morning, I told you that the number would be less than the forecast of 150,000 jobs created, but even my guess was higher than the actual, 39,000 jobs created.
[Read more...]Commodities Sell Off as the Dollar Rally Continues
The commodities continue to be under the dollar’s pressure cooker these days. I have a long time friend that says he believes this commodities sell-off is stronger than I give it credit for… Hmmm… I didn’t see that coming! Sure, the commodities and commodity currencies ran fast against the dollar since June, and all for good reasons, given the FOMC’s willingness to bring inflation into the US economy, which to me would only mean that a technical correction is in store… But my friend, insists it will be more than that… So, there… You have been warned.
[Read more...]Can Foreign Intervention Save the US Dollar?
The Federal Reserve’s $900 billion asset purchasing program may help the US economy…or maybe it won’t. But one thing is certain – the US dollar will be the biggest loser. In fact, just about every currency you can name is set to eclipse the greenback over the next few months.
[Read more...]Get ready for a Volatile Week in the Markets
Chuck is getting on a plane bound for Mexico this morning, so I will be bringing you the Pfennig this week. As usual, Chuck left me a note to share with all the readers last night, so heeerrreee’s Chuck:
On Friday, we saw more healing in the currencies and metals, from the price action earlier in the week. Gold jumped up $15, and I have to think that some of that gain came from the heightened risk from the packages from Yemen. I tell you all the time that we have a ton of nut-jobs running around the world, wanting to blow this up, or wipe this country off the map… But gold – with silver tagging along – will always be sought when geopolitical risks elevate.
[Read more...]Currency Rally is Wiped Out!
Last night, I went to my computer at home, and brought up the currency markets, and saw that as of 9:00 last night, the currency rally that was VERY strong yesterday, was still “onâ€�… But, like I said at the top, I arrived here, albeit late, this morning and things are drastically changed! I was all prepared to tell you about the 1.70 appreciation of the euro (EUR) in one day, and the $18 rise in gold… But, the best laid plans of mice and men change, eh?
[Read more...]US Dollar Rises on QE2 Theories
It was fairly uneventful in the currency market yesterday, but the dollar held the hammer at the end of the day, as there were only two currencies that posted gains. I’ll jump into currencies in a moment, but first, we’ll take a look at the results of the economic reports released here in the US. Right out of the gate, we had the TIC flows (security purchases by foreigners), Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization, which were then followed by a measure of housing.
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China Raises Interest Rates to Combat Inflation
Chris did a great job last week, keeping me up to date on what was going on… I thought he described it quite well, with the trading desks cut down to junior traders, and no one wanting to go far out on the limb with positions this close to end-of-the-year position squaring… I truly suspect that will be the case but only magnified to even slower movements and smaller volumes… But that doesn’t mean I won’t have anything to talk about!
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