The currency/risk on rally was quite strong yesterday, all day long! However, in the overnight markets, we’ve seen some profit taking, and reassessing of what they were doing, like pushing the euro to above 1.30. I say that because there’s still no agreement with Greece and the private creditors… I keep hearing and reading analysts, talking about how the Greece problem is unsolvable… OK… maybe it is… but if that’s true, then what about Illinois? Or California?
[Read more...]China to Show More Manufacturing Weakness?
January 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment
What looked like a workable situation for Greece and private creditors has taken a turn that has the euro (EUR) vulnerable again this morning. It’s not as if the situation is unworkable. It’s just that they are struggling to come to an agreement, and since it’s not as smooth as Jiffy, then the Chicken Littles come out of the crowds… But then, quite frankly, I have been surprised by the strength the euro has displayed this week. The euro has always shown resiliency, but as I’ve said a couple of times now this year… I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall to 1.18 and then rebound to 1.40… But we have 49 more weeks to go in 2012. There’s a lot of give and take here, so buckle up, yes, that’s right: Click it or ticket…
[Read more...]Eurozone Data Continues to Print Weak
January 6, 2012 By Leave a Comment
There’s a lot to get to this morning… but front and center is the Jobs Jamboree Friday… The first one of 2012, although it is December’s job creation report. The ADP jobs report yesterday, which was supposed to be the “indicator” for the Jobs Jamboree, but never really materialized as such, reported that 325,000 jobs were created in December… Now, that would be something to crow about… It will be interesting to see what the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) comes up with… As I told you earlier this week, this is also the month were the “adjustments” to previous BLS reports are made… However, those won’t get a spotlight, and mass media coverage… They are done under the dark of night, sort of like the bill that was signed on New Year’s Eve by the President… If you’re not aware of that one, you should be… Your personal freedoms could very well hang in the balance…
[Read more...]US Retail Sales Disappoint
December 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment
It’s all about the dollar, right now… And of course, in September I told you that the perfect storm was building for dollar strength, so this comes as no surprise… What does surprise me, though, is the myopic view of debt that the markets’ participants have taken… It’s as if all the debt in the world belongs to the Eurozone, and the US has a picture-perfect balance sheet…
[Read more...]Spain Successfully Auctions Off €4.94 Billion
December 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The stock jockeys used to talk about a Santa Rally… I don’t think they’ll get the chance to talk about that this year… Unless of course they are talking in the past tense! You see, the markets are really screwed up these days… Take gold, for instance… One would think that, with debt problems in the two largest economies in the world, investors would be flocking to gold… Unfortunately, though, the markets think like this… “We should flock to dollars and treasuries”… And that’s what I talked about last week when I said I finally figured out that, if investors are buying dollars, what do they need gold for?
[Read more...]Did the Jobless Rate Really Fall?
December 5, 2011 By Leave a Comment
I’ll probably be all alone when I make this statement, but, then I don’t follow the trumpeter anyway… What a crock the Jobs report was last week! When will the major media figure this all out? Probably never, because they don’t have real investigative reporters any longer… But here’s what I’m talking about, folks… The Jobs Jamboree reported that 120,000 jobs were created in November… (The previous month was revised upward from 80,000 to 100,000) So… On the outside, things looked OK… But remember, it takes far more than 120,000 jobs each month to support a strong economy.
[Read more...]Rate Cut Week Next Week?
December 2, 2011 By Leave a Comment
OK… It’s a Jobs Jamboree Friday… (Doesn’t it seem like we just did this?) The experts are looking for the economy to have created 125,000 jobs in November… Hmmm… While that would be nice to see, I doubt it has legs to stand on… IF, we really count the jobs created correctly… Remember that in October the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) told us the total jobs created for the month was 80,000? And then I told you that 102,000 jobs were added from the Birth/Death Model… Or as I like to call them…“ghost jobs”… So, that’s what I’m talking about when I say “count jobs created correctly.”
[Read more...]Confidence in the EU Helps Rally the Markets
November 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Good day… Chuck felt it was best to sit out one more day as he tries to recover from a major cold he came down with late last week. He wanted me to share a few of his thoughts with the Pfennig readers this morning, so I’ll start right off with them. Take it away Chuck…
Here are some observations from the cheap seats, where I sit on I.R.
[Read more...]
Who’s Still OK With Deficit Spending Now?
I had to laugh yesterday when the New York traders came in and didn’t sell the currencies right away… I said to myself, “Self, maybe the ‘big boys’ read the Pfennig and now know that I’ve uncovered their ‘game,’ so they have to lay low for a while!” HA! Whatever the case, the currencies held their gains most of the day, and even added on in some cases.
[Read more...]