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Blame It On the Greeks

June 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 179 points yesterday – continuing a weeks-long trend of dismal performance. The Dow still clings to a slim gain for the year, but the NASDAQ has slipped into the red. Curiously, the XAU Index of gold stocks has also slipped into the red, even though gold, itself, is up nearly 10% on the year.

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The Dividing Influence in the US Job Market

June 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment

For 6 weeks, the Dow has been going down. It should be ready to bounce.

But stock market investors didn’t get a bounce yesterday. They didn’t take a loss either. It was a draw. The Dow closed 1 point higher than on Friday.

As for oil, it was down to $97. And gold lost $13.

Business profits have been near record highs. This is not a good reason to buy stocks. Profits are famously “mean reverting.” That is, they go back to normal pretty fast. Which should mean lower profits in the future.

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What to Do In Case of Liquidation

June 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 172 points last Friday – punctuating another thoroughly forgettable week for American capitalism. Friday’s loss submerged the Dow back below the 12,000 mark, while also producing a sixth straight losing week for the US stock market.

How rare is a six-week losing streak?

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Gold Rallies in the Ugly Face of Financial Markets

June 2, 2011 By Leave a Comment

There is beauty in life, and there is truth. The two are not mutually exclusive, necessarily, though a coincidence can be rare. Often times, the truth is not as attractive as we would like for it to be. And sometimes beauty is but a lie. But every once in a while, the two converge…and the result is rarely displeasing.

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Who’s Holding the Bag?

March 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

When disaster strikes, the initial victims are rarely the only victims. Collateral consequences fan out in surprising ways. Sometimes, the individual/entities who are left holding the bag are not the ones we would expect.

The tri-disasters in Japan will provide a classic example. There will be obvious immediate victims, as well as less obvious subsequent victims. Investors might find it worthwhile to consider who some of the subsequent victims might be. Let’s call this little game, “Who’s Holding the Bag?”

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Why Stock Market Rallies Aren’t Worth the Hype

September 2, 2010 By Leave a Comment

First, the good news: Stocks staged a mammoth rally yesterday. The Dow managed a 2.5% run, while the broader S&P 500 scooted ahead 3%.

What a wondrous achievement this must have seemed like…to anyone who spent the previous month on the golf course, far away from their computer screen.

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Double-Dip Recession a Fashionable Discussion Piece

July 1, 2010 By Leave a Comment

To make money investing, you have to be ahead of the crowd…or at least looking for the story no one is telling.

That was a tough task this morning. Suddenly, discussing the unthinkable – a double-dip recession and a retest of the March 2009 lows – is in vogue. Even readers are bored with the end of the world as we have known it…

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Will the S&P Slip into a Bear Market?

June 8, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Stocks continue to fall this week. The Dow and S&P fell over 1% again yesterday, continuing Fridays big sell-off. Just as we hinted regarding gold…theres no new news, just continued debt and leverage crises around the world. The S&P opened down this morning about 0.2%

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Markets, Bottoms and Dow-Gold Intersection

May 20, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Chartoftheday.com sent me, this week, a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average adjusted for inflation, going back to 1925, which was before I was born, believe it or not, which means it was a long time ago.

The way they have drawn support and resistance lines (a straight line to connect the market highs and another line to connect the lows) rising so that 500 on the Dow in 1925 is equivalent to 5,000 today, forms a channel which indicates that the Dow is (checking my watch for accuracy) right now in the middle of the channel, and heading down, with about 5,000 on the Dow as being the bottom (support line) of the channel, which would indicate, if there is anything to this cycle theory stuff, that theres a huge drop ahead for the index! Oops!

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