Debt Makes a Comeback: The New Bubble in the Financial Sector

As we signed off on Friday, the Saudis were suppressing a ‘Day of Rage’ in Arabie… Gaddafi was mopping up the resistance in Libya… And an earthquake and tsunami left thousands dead in Japan.

But that didn’t stop the stock market. The Dow rose 59 points.

Now it is Monday. And in all the excitement we kinda lost track… But we gots to know…

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Debunking Deflation

Now that almost every Wall Street economist is looking for the arrival of a Great Deflation, we think investors should begin looking the other way. Keep an eye out for inflation, we say.

You will recall that during the bottom of the previous bear-market, most of the pundits were shunning ‘risky assets' (stocks and commodities) and they were advocating a heavy exposure to cash and fixed income assets. Back then, the vast majority of strategists and their devotees were erroneously fretting about deflation. According to these folks, deflation was a done deal due to the following reasons:

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Who Pays Bad Debts?

A front-page photo in Tuesday's Financial Times shows lightning striking near the Parthenon. Zeus must be reading the paper.

Greece is supposed to cut its public spending by an amount equal to 10% of its GDP. Even so, its public debt is expected to rise to nearly 150% of GDP by 2016 – or three times the level of Argentina when it defaulted in 2001.

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A Faux Recovery Based on Economic Stimulus

More money! More stimulus! And more borrowing from the future to combat the errors of the past…

President Obama wants another $50 billion, presumably to keep the economy “stimulated.â€? We “must take these emergency measures…â€? he wrote in a letter to congressional leaders, or else risk “…massive layoffs of teachers, police and firefighters.â€?

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Recovery Flops!

In the reign of Emperor Zhao, in 81 BC, 60 Confucian scholars were asked to consider the effect of government meddling in the economy. The Middle Kingdom was in a fix. Mongol raiders were pressing it from the East; the government was going broke. Taking the advice of Sang Hongyang, the feds of that era had put in place various state monopolies and price controls. The result?

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A Gold Medal in Economic Incompetence

They fought the correction; the correction won.

We refer to Bernanke, Summers, Obama, Geithner, Krugman – the whole lot of them. They added three trillion dollars to US debt in the last two years. In two more years the debt will be at 100% of GDP. Add in the debts they’ve guaranteed – from Fannie Mae, for example, and state and local debt implicitly backed by the feds – and you’re already at 150% of GDP. Worse than Greece, in other words.

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Crisis or Recovery: Tales From a Conflicted Economy

“Call it a nightmare,” says Dave Rosenberg.

Markets all over the world went down again yesterday. The Dow dropped below 10,000 in the morning trading…then came back to give up a modest 22 points by the closing bell.

The Wall Street Journal says it’s time to start worrying about a “double dip recession.”

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Government Debt: The Not-So-Silent Economy Killer

Europe has lost its head!

First, the weather is completely out-of-sync with the calendar. Perhaps it’s because of the volcano in Iceland… The dust is blotting out the sun. There’s no sun here today. Instead, the sky is pale grey. And it’s raining. The calendar say’s May 11th, but it could easily pass for February.

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Greek Debt Crisis: 7 More Lean Years

“Capital is going on strike,” The Richebacher Society’s Rob Parenteau warned us late last week when he swung by our Baltimore offices for a quick interview and update on the crisis. Rob was early…and right on the money with his analysis of the event.

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