Since 1946, at least in the US, the skies got a little bluer every day. Consumer spending increased nearly every year. At first, consumers spent what they earned. And then came the wonder years…when they spent more and more money they hadn’t earned yet.

Then, in the 20 years leading up to 2007, incomes scarcely rose. But standards of living went up anyway. How was it possible? Easy. Instead of saving 8% of their incomes, as they had for the previous 5 decades, they spent the money. The savings rate fell to near zero. Debt increased. Of course, you can only take a thing like that so far. In this case, the end of the credit expansion came three years ago. All of a sudden consumers were faced with a grim prospect. They could no longer spend money they didn’t have. Now they had to NOT spend money they DID have. It was pay back time…time to return the money they had borrowed during those carefree years.