Both Germany and the IMF have cut their growth forecasts for this year. Germany for Germany, and the IMF for global growth… But both are cutting their forecasts because of the same thing… Eurozone weakness, due to the debt problems, which are pushing austerity measures, which will cut growth for certain!
[Read more...]US Retail Sales Disappoint
December 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment
It’s all about the dollar, right now… And of course, in September I told you that the perfect storm was building for dollar strength, so this comes as no surprise… What does surprise me, though, is the myopic view of debt that the markets’ participants have taken… It’s as if all the debt in the world belongs to the Eurozone, and the US has a picture-perfect balance sheet…
[Read more...]Spain Successfully Auctions Off €4.94 Billion
December 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The stock jockeys used to talk about a Santa Rally… I don’t think they’ll get the chance to talk about that this year… Unless of course they are talking in the past tense! You see, the markets are really screwed up these days… Take gold, for instance… One would think that, with debt problems in the two largest economies in the world, investors would be flocking to gold… Unfortunately, though, the markets think like this… “We should flock to dollars and treasuries”… And that’s what I talked about last week when I said I finally figured out that, if investors are buying dollars, what do they need gold for?
[Read more...]Eurozone Plan Spurs Currency Rally
October 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Front and center this morning, G-20 Finance Ministers are meeting in Paris, and it looks like the early leaks of what’s going on is responsible for the currency and metals rally this morning. A plan to deal with Europe’s debt problems has been hatched. The outline of the plan has deeper losses on Greek bonds, higher bank capital levels and increased firepower for bailouts, and the IMF. And it sounds like Eurozone leaders will meet next week to iron out the devil in the details, and put this to bed.
[Read more...]China Contemplates More Investment
September 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The death watch for Greek debt continues… I saw one pundit say yesterday that a Greek default wasn’t a question of “if” but “when”… The markets are convinced that Greece and the European Union have no way out of this but to default. The Eurozone leaders are still trying to hang on to the 10% chance that Greece won’t default, and good for them… It would do no one any good for them to throw in the towel when there’s still a chance… Unfortunately, the chances are slim and none…and slim left town!
[Read more...]China Contemplates More Investment
September 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The death watch for Greek debt continues… I saw one pundit say yesterday that a Greek default wasn’t a question of “if” but “when”… The markets are convinced that Greece and the European Union have no way out of this but to default. The Eurozone leaders are still trying to hang on to the 10% chance that Greece won’t default, and good for them… It would do no one any good for them to throw in the towel when there’s still a chance… Unfortunately, the chances are slim and none…and slim left town!
[Read more...]A Debt Ceiling Deadlock Resolution?
July 20, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The flight to so-called “safety” that was all over the markets late last week, has dissipated, and investors and traders are going back out on the limb to take on risk… Of course, that could change on a dime at any time; so to say, “I think this will continue” would be leaving oneself hung out on a line… So, since I would drag any line down to the ground, you won’t hear me saying that! At least not right now, with the debt ceiling deadlock here in the US and the “will we or won’t we take defaulted bonds” going on in the Eurozone.
[Read more...]German Banks Warm to 30-Year Greek Debt
June 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Another vote this morning will take place in Greece, this being the most important thing of the day… So, I guess that’s all we need to talk about, eh? Not so fast there, my friend! There’s more to talk about, so stop beating around the bush and get to it! OK?
Front and center today, there’s more optimism that the “implementation” part of the 2-day Greek voting in Parliament, will pass, and that optimism has the euro (EUR) on the rise again. The first vote to accept the austerity measures passed yesterday, with only one dissenting vote… In fact, a trader friend of mine (thanks S.M.L.) sent me a note that said the markets misread the story at first, and thought that the vote had failed, thus causing a brief, but quick weakening of the euro. But that all changed once the “true” story was produced.
[Read more...]
Currencies Rally on Eurozone Agreement
The currency rally that stalled yesterday was back on last night… I have to tell you that I was up most of the night on Sunday and after getting poked and stuck at the doctor’s office yesterday, I went home, straight to my recliner and slept for the next five hours! Then I woke up, went to my computer and checked the overnight markets, and I saw the currencies had turned around, along with gold. So naturally, I began to scour the news to see what was going on.
[Read more...]