Well… The stock jockeys used to talk about a Santa Rally… I don’t think they’ll get the chance to talk about that this year… Unless of course they are talking in the past tense! You see, the markets are really screwed up these days… Take gold, for instance… One would think that, with debt problems in the two largest economies in the world, investors would be flocking to gold… Unfortunately, though, the markets think like this… “We should flock to dollars and treasuries”… And that’s what I talked about last week when I said I finally figured out that, if investors are buying dollars, what do they need gold for?
[Read more...]Eurozone Plan Spurs Currency Rally
October 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Front and center this morning, G-20 Finance Ministers are meeting in Paris, and it looks like the early leaks of what’s going on is responsible for the currency and metals rally this morning. A plan to deal with Europe’s debt problems has been hatched. The outline of the plan has deeper losses on Greek bonds, higher bank capital levels and increased firepower for bailouts, and the IMF. And it sounds like Eurozone leaders will meet next week to iron out the devil in the details, and put this to bed.
[Read more...]China Contemplates More Investment
September 13, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The death watch for Greek debt continues… I saw one pundit say yesterday that a Greek default wasn’t a question of “if” but “when”… The markets are convinced that Greece and the European Union have no way out of this but to default. The Eurozone leaders are still trying to hang on to the 10% chance that Greece won’t default, and good for them… It would do no one any good for them to throw in the towel when there’s still a chance… Unfortunately, the chances are slim and none…and slim left town!
[Read more...]A Debt Ceiling Deadlock Resolution?
July 20, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well… The flight to so-called “safety” that was all over the markets late last week, has dissipated, and investors and traders are going back out on the limb to take on risk… Of course, that could change on a dime at any time; so to say, “I think this will continue” would be leaving oneself hung out on a line… So, since I would drag any line down to the ground, you won’t hear me saying that! At least not right now, with the debt ceiling deadlock here in the US and the “will we or won’t we take defaulted bonds” going on in the Eurozone.
[Read more...]German Banks Warm to 30-Year Greek Debt
June 30, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Another vote this morning will take place in Greece, this being the most important thing of the day… So, I guess that’s all we need to talk about, eh? Not so fast there, my friend! There’s more to talk about, so stop beating around the bush and get to it! OK?
Front and center today, there’s more optimism that the “implementation” part of the 2-day Greek voting in Parliament, will pass, and that optimism has the euro (EUR) on the rise again. The first vote to accept the austerity measures passed yesterday, with only one dissenting vote… In fact, a trader friend of mine (thanks S.M.L.) sent me a note that said the markets misread the story at first, and thought that the vote had failed, thus causing a brief, but quick weakening of the euro. But that all changed once the “true” story was produced.
[Read more...]A Greek Confidence Vote Today
June 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Front and center this morning, there are more rumblings from anybody with a “title” in the Eurozone, about Greece… But the euro (EUR) isn’t paying attention, and yesterday, in the face of Greece being told they had to produce a budget full of spending cuts, the euro rallied… And continued that rally overnight. I had a dear reader ask me yesterday why I thought the euro was rallying with the latest news from Greece… I said… “Well, maybe traders are growing tired of all this back and forth with Greece.” Yes, maybe, just maybe, traders have decided to wait until a plan either has been implemented, or not, and deal with the currencies appropriately at that time…
[Read more...]A Greek Resolution…For Now
June 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Front and center this morning… There was a story that hit the newswires in the European session that claimed the bailout of 150 billion euros was close to being agreed on by all parties… The euro (EUR) shot up on this news, and is back to 1.42, after spending most of yesterday with a 1.40 handle, and looking very much in need of some medicine… Well, that medicine came in the form of an unsubstantiated newswire story… I say that because there is no proof that this is the case. So… Don’t get too comfy, cozy, with the 1.42 handle in euros… The rug could be pulled on that rally in a New York Minute…
[Read more...]A Greek Bond Rollover Agreement?
June 7, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Yesterday was an interesting day in the currencies. I left you yesterday morning with the euro (EUR) barely hanging on to the 1.46 handle, and falling because of some German government official spouting off about the Greek bailout… Well… The markets soon figured out just what I told you yesterday morning, and that was, that the German official was merely trying to throw the markets off the scent of a rallying euro…
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US Retail Sales Disappoint
It’s all about the dollar, right now… And of course, in September I told you that the perfect storm was building for dollar strength, so this comes as no surprise… What does surprise me, though, is the myopic view of debt that the markets’ participants have taken… It’s as if all the debt in the world belongs to the Eurozone, and the US has a picture-perfect balance sheet…
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