The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (4 of 4)

[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 3.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (3 of 4)

[Introduction below, and then continuing from Part 2.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (2 of 4)

[Continued from Part 1.]

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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The Amphora Report’s 2010 Topics in Review (1 of 4)

In 14 editions of the Amphora Report this year we have covered nearly 30 topics, many of which overlap in some way. What binds them all into a coherent set is our view that the economic policies being implemented in nearly all major countries are not just unsustainable but in some cases outright reckless. These countries include the US, the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. By implication, the dollar is likely to lose its pre-eminent reserve currency status in the coming years. The result is bound to be a period of global economic and financial market turmoil and, for most if not all traditional financial assets, underperformance in real, purchasing-power adjusted terms. What follows below is a list of all topics, including both a brief summary and an update of our thinking for 2011.

[Read more...]



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The Pain in Spain…and in Ireland

Financial markets underestimate just how deep the rot extends into the euro zone’s banking systems and economies. Since early 2010, when credit spreads on the euro zone’s periphery started blowing out, I’ve viewed the EU bailouts as futile efforts to refinance themselves out of a solvency crisis. If you’re truly bankrupt, trying to put it off by refinancing never works out.

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European Bank Stress Test Results in, 7 of 91 EU Banks Fail

The European Union bank stress test, which included 91 banks or about 65 percent of the EU banking sector, has resulted in seven failures: five Spanish, one Greek, and one German institution were unable to earn a passing mark… with a combined $4.5 billion shortfall. They are as follows:

* CajaSur (Spainish)

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UK Research Center Tells Greece to Quit the Euro

Despite new austerity measures and a nearly trillion dollar eurozone rescue package, a UK research center is proclaiming that Greece’s days using the euro are numbered. The Centre for Economics and Business Research says it’s only a matter of time before Greece must abandon the euro and default on the roughly €300 billion it has racked up in debt.

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Youth Unemployment Hits 20% in Europe

Unemployment in the eurozone hit a new 10-year record in April at 10.1 percent. This is true even while excluding Greece… which isn’t bothering to contribute monthly data for the time being.

The rest of the PIIGS all had predictable increases in joblessness. Probably hit hardest are the young, which have an unemployment rate above 40 percent in Spain, and are now an average of 20 percent jobless for the eurozone overall.

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Weakest EU Nations Trying Out a New Look

Greece may have been the first caught out in the cold… and wearing the skimpiest outfit… but a range of countries on the periphery of the European Union are looking more than a little threadbare.

If the rest of the troubled nations find themselves also in need of a new pair of shoes there may be no more handouts left to give. Perhaps the markets will get a chance to sort out the matter.

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Secretary General of OECD: Greek Contagion Already “Like Ebola”

Since Greece’s 2-year debt hit a new record-high yield of 26 percent stock markets around the world have been struggling. Likewise, the euro, now at about $1.3213, recently had its worse one-day decline against the dollar in about 12 months.

How bad is it really? According to Bloomberg:

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