Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
The stock market still has further to fall to catch up with the slowing economy. US GDP will keep decelerating – likely approaching a zero percent growth rate by 2011 – for the following reasons:
1. The long-term trend back towards consumer frugality and higher savings rates remains in full force. This will dampen consumer spending.
[Read more...]Nothing special happened on Friday. The Dow lost 21 points. Gold gained 7, to bring it back over $1,200.
Here at The Daily Reckoning our annoying forecast is that gold will fall. So will stocks.
It’s annoying because 1) both have been going up…and 2) we still think you should go with gold anyway.
[Read more...]There are two major schools of thought on what is coming next…and two renegade, home-schools too. There are those who believe we have a recovery…though weak…that will continue and eventually bring the economy back to health. This is the line of the Obama Administration and most mainstream economists.
[Read more...]Not much action in the markets yesterday. The Dow barely budged, but still ended the day in positive territory – the 7th day in a row of gains. Gold fell $6.
Investors beware!
Why? Because they are trapped. After 12 years without a real gain, they can’t afford to miss a major rally. So, they’re inclined to take chances. But is this rally worth betting on?
[Read more...]The markets produced little more than white noise yesterday. Major indexes in the US closed within a fraction of a percent from where they began.
Stocks have been lollygagging for most of this year, wandering hither and thither like a donkey in the desert, without so much as a map or a compass to guide them. On the one hand, they have the interventionalists – whose very careers depend on a faux recovery magically morphing into something tangible, something buyable – pulling them in one direction. Then, on the other hand, they have the unrelenting natural forces of the market, pushing down on prices and squeezing the bejeezus out of growth potential. One gets the feeling that, if something doesn’t give way soon, this ass is going to die of thirst.
[Read more...]For the first time in eight trading days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average produced a plus sign – up 57 points to 9,744. The last time the Dow achieved this increasingly rare feat was on June 23, when it gained five points to end the day at 10,298 – 554 points higher than yesterday’s close.
[Read more...]The mellow stock market decline through mid-2008 (measured by historical yardsticks) and the bull market in U.S. Treasuries of all maturities belied not a crisis but some dreadful disease that had been effectively quarantined.
Perhaps as in history’s great epidemics, the doctors in this case had not seen this sort of sickness before and had yet to understand completely what strain of bug was at work. Although having DNA similar to pathogens seen in wartime debt buildups, this season’s strain encoded itself with the pattern of socialism: entitlements, bloated and intrusive government, and punitive taxation exclusively directed at the top brackets. Its vector of transmission is fiat currency.
[Read more...]Let’s see…what’s in the news today?
Stocks went down again yesterday. The Dow got trimmed by 96 points.
Gold, on the other hand, went up $3 to $1,245.
The first half of the year came to a close with the S&P 500 down 6%, global stocks down 10%, oil down 5%, Chinese stocks down 27%, the euro down 14%.
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Gold Speculation During the Great Correction
Yesterday was a good day for stock market investors. Prices went up. The Dow rose 254 points, leaving us uncertain about its near-term intentions.
Of course, we’re always uncertain. But sometimes we’re more uncertain than others. What seems certain to us is that stocks are a bad bet.
[Read more...]