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Canadian Finance Minister Talks Up the Loonie

January 24, 2011 by Leave a Comment

As I turn on the currency screens this morning, I see that the euro (EUR) – which remained well bid on Friday, thus losing that trading pattern we talked about, of overnight rallies for the euro and daytime sell offs – has backed off Friday’s high… The German IFO Business Confidence was responsible for the euro’s strong bid on Friday… Last night, the euro backed off a bit… The single unit actually traded above 1.36 on Friday afternoon, when the volume was thinning. This morning, the single unit is below 1.36 at 1.3575, as I type…

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There’s Still Time for the Korean Won

January 6, 2011 by Leave a Comment

On Dec. 19, South Korea announced plans for a new fee on bank transactions. The goal was to reduce speculation that was pushing its currency, the won, up in value. But Korean officials are wasting their time. These measures won’t be enough to stop the won from appreciating even more.

After all, we continue to see similar policies fail across the globe. World currencies are spiking as low interest rates and the widening money supply in the United States and Japan force investors to search for higher yields elsewhere.

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US Dollar Rallies as FOMC Sounds the “All Clear Horn�

January 5, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Well… The rally for the euro (EUR) didn’t have strong legs yesterday. Seems that a strong Factory Orders number here in the US got everyone thinking once again that the all-clear horn has been sounded for the US… The dollar rallied, commodities sold off, and gold lost $34 (as I left for the day). I’ll just say this about the all-clear horn being sounded… If things were so rosy, would the Fed/Cartel/Bernank, be leaving interest rates near zero? Why would the same crew be carrying out their implementation of quantitative easing?

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China to Buy Spanish Debt. Euro Rallies.

January 4, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Well… It’s a “risk offâ€� day that began yesterday afternoon… The only strange part of this risk off trading is the fact that the euro (EUR) is rallying versus the dollar! I know, I know, that seems to be a very strange occurrence… But it’s true, it’s true, I did see a euro rally! Other than euros, and sterling (GBP), the rest of the currencies have taken on water versus the dollar since yesterday afternoon, and that includes gold and silver, which have sold off too.

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2-Year High for Oil Pushes the Loonie Higher

January 3, 2011 by Leave a Comment

Well… As I expected, the euro (EUR) really ran up on Friday’s trading, as shorts were covered and trading books were squared for year-end. I truly believe that this euro-buying could be reversed as we go through the first month of 2011… The reason I say that is I truly believe that the euro will come under pressure, as the Eurozone gets probed to come up with better solutions to their periphery countries’ problems. I expect Germany to balk at many things, and when they balk, the runners get to move up…the runners being the dollar, and gold…

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China Raises Interest Rates to Combat Inflation

December 27, 2010 by Leave a Comment

Chris did a great job last week, keeping me up to date on what was going on… I thought he described it quite well, with the trading desks cut down to junior traders, and no one wanting to go far out on the limb with positions this close to end-of-the-year position squaring… I truly suspect that will be the case but only magnified to even slower movements and smaller volumes… But that doesn’t mean I won’t have anything to talk about!

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US Data Indicate Slow Economic Growth

December 23, 2010 by Leave a Comment

The dollar stayed in the tight range in which it has been trading over the past week. The range of the dollar index over the past 5 days has been just 0.71%. Talk about stable markets! We had a plethora of data released here in the US yesterday, with most of the numbers coming in below expectations. The big number was third quarter GDP, which was reported at 2.6% compared to an estimate of 2.8%. While the number failed to reach economists upbeat estimates, it was slightly higher than the previous estimate of 2.5% growth. Personal consumption for the third quarter also came in below expectations with a 2.4% increase compared to predictions of a 2.9% rise. And the final piece of data in the GDP group, the GDP Price Index, rose 2.1% versus survey estimates of 2.3%.

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US Data Releases Could Move the Markets

December 22, 2010 by Leave a Comment

Good day… We had another fairly quiet day in the markets on Tuesday, and it looks like most of the currency desks have already been placed on autopilot. Every year we get a lull in trading activity toward the end of the year, as most of the currency investors square up positions and don’t take large bets at the end of the year. Many of the desks are manned by junior staff while the big bosses head out for their holiday vacations (EverBank WorldMarkets included). But for the first time this week, we will have a pretty good bunch of data releases here in the US, so we could see a bit more action in the markets. With thinner trading volumes, a rogue piece of economic data can have a major impact on the markets.

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Will France Be the Next Euro Nation to Fail?

December 21, 2010 by Leave a Comment

Europe is falling apart and economies both small and large aren’t immune to fears of a meltdown. While Spain and Italy are getting the most attention, you also need to pay attention to France. With the country’s negative economic numbers and wide exposure to both Greece and Spain, the future doesn’t look good for Les Bleus, which is even worse news for the euro (EUR).

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China Weighs-In on the European Debt Crisis

December 21, 2010 by Leave a Comment

We had a busy day on the desk yesterday, but not because of volatility in the markets. The dollar traded in a very tight range versus all of the major currencies yesterday, and is still in that same range as I flip the screens on, this morning. There aren’t any meaningful data releases in the US this morning, and the trading desks are starting to get squared up for the holidays; so I would expect today’s markets to be more of the same.

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