Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Oh my…oh my…
Locusts…earthquakes…tornadoes… What next? Fire and Brimstone!
There’s a plague of locusts eating crops in Australia…
Earthquakes are becoming more common…after devastating quakes hit Haiti and then Chili.
“We could definitely feel it in Buenos Aires,” said our friends. “It was very unsettling. The heavy blinds we have up outside began smacking against the house as if there were a wind storm. But there wasn’t any wind.”
[Read more...]Last week, we went to a bootmaker in Salta. The old man showed us a pair of red boots.
“Here, try these on. I made them for a big norte-americano like you.”
We put them on. But they were a tad too large. Then, we saw the initials on the order form.
“Who are you making these for?” we asked.
[Read more...]When will the de-leveraging bust resume?
When we stop worrying about it.
This afternoon, we realized that deep down, our feelings had changed: we had stopped worrying about a resumption of the bear market.
Not that we’ve stopped thinking about it. We think about it every day. And we’re sure it’s coming. But we have stopped worrying. No matter what we think, we feel that somehow this will work out okay…we’ll be all right. We’ll stumble along…
[Read more...]It’s springtime. The temperature is 85 degrees here in Washington. New York is approaching record-breaking temperatures. Global warming is back in business.
The flowers are out. Cherry blossoms are thick on the ground. The grass is yearning for the mower.
Heck, everything is back in business. To hear the media tell it, you’d think jobs were picking up…consumer spending too…manufacturing – everything.
[Read more...]For more than a year, the “recovery” bounce in the stock market has refused to give up. The indexes have recovered more than 50% of what was lost. Technically, they look pretty good. What’s more, the S&P sells at more than 21 times normalized earnings, according to Robert Shiller’s latest tally. It seems like nothing can stop stocks now.
[Read more...]We’re going to rename our theory. This is more than a depression; it’s more than a financial and economic phenomenon. It includes a shift of power…a return to normal after 4 centuries of aberration…and the failure of a whole line of Nobel Prizing-winning economic claptrap, including the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory. Let’s call this phase “The Great Correction”…and wait for events to prove we’re right.
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Emerging Markets vs. Submerging Economies
We’re back in Paris. The flight on Air France was long, but not disagreeable. It was even better in the First Class cabin. Not that we were in it. But we were curious about the people who were.
Usually, on the Air France flight from Washington to Paris, you see a few rich people. You also see some people you wonder about. Typically, there is an African diplomat…or a hack bureaucrat from an international agency. Sometimes you will see a hip-hop star…or a fashion model. Or just someone who lucked into an upgrade.
[Read more...]