Dollar Gets Sold On Bad Data Prints

The currencies traded yesterday, but in very tight ranges, as the US was on holiday. This morning, the bias is to sell dollars, much like it was on Friday before the liquidity of Europe went to the pubs… Let's go back now, and revisit Friday's action…

Well… There was more proof on Friday that the double dip is coming…

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US Debt and Deficit Numbers Overlooked by the Mainstream

Two big numbers made news yesterday as we approached the market close. No one, to our knowledge, made a connection between the two. But to us, the connection is screamingly obvious. And frankly, your financial future hinges on that connection.

Here’s the first number: $82.7 billion. That’s the deficit the US Treasury posted last month. That’s awful for April, which usually records a positive number, thanks to tax receipts flooding in around the 15th. Last year recorded a loss too. But that was only $21 billion. So this year, the bleeding is nearly four times as bad.

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A Global Rebalancing Act

For about the past half century the US has maintained a trade deficit. On the other hand, China has developed a trade surplus mostly because of the lopsided trade situation between the two countries. China makes a wide range of cheap goods and most of them are bought in the US.

During the financial crisis, and its aftermath, these imbalances seemed to rein in a bit and trade between the two countries looked like it could at least be headed back in the direction of a healthy alignment. However, it was a temporary and misleading close in the gap. The imbalance reduced only because global trade overall was shrinking… including the distortions… not because there was any real improvement in the US-China trade situation.

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US Trade Deficit Widens

The price of oil has dropped from $83.18 a week ago, to $79.80 this morning… Why did this spoil my day? Well, like Lloyd Bridges in Airplane, I must have picked a bad day to fill my gas tank – the other day, when oil was so high!

Well… Even with oil backing off, the Canadian dollar/loonie (CAD), remains well bid this morning… That’s strange… But, in the whole scheme of things, not too strange… I mean, not Tiny Tim strange… Just strange enough to make someone think for a moment about what else could be underpinning the loonie? It sure wasn’t their return to a deficit, which, by the way, was only $0.3 billion in November, which reversed October’s $0.5 billion surplus… I’m talking about trade balances here.

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