Good day… And a Marvelous Monday to you! Today, actually is a Bank Holiday! That’s right… We celebrate the guy who discovered the West Indies, or something like that! Columbus Day is one of those “soft holidays”, where banks are closed and there’s no mail delivery. So… I forgot to mention that we would be “closed” when I signed off last Friday… So, for that I apologize…
[Read more...]Welcome to the New Bear Market
October 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment
What little good QE2 accomplished has now vaporized.
Shortly after the open this morning, the S&P 500 dipped to 1,087 — 20% lower than the April 29 high of 1,363, thus meeting the formal definition of a “bear market.” That much you’ve likely already heard if you were unfortunate enough to turn on your radio or TV.
[Read more...]Why Government Spending Won’t Inspire Consumer Confidence
October 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Blood ran in the streets again yesterday. The Dow fell another 258 points. A few more days like that and the index will be below 10,000.
That ought to make an impression. Among other things, it should help people realize that there has been no recovery…not even a weak one. And there won’t be a recovery, ever. Not of this economy.
[Read more...]The Developed World Shifts from “More” to “Better”
October 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Have we told you where we think the US and other developed countries are headed? No?
Well, things won’t necessarily be so bad. In a few words: the lust for MORE will become a lust for BETTER.
Yes, the age of easy growth is over. You probably won’t make any money buying stocks. And your house will never return to the levels of ’05-’06. And oh yes…you may not be able to get a job.
[Read more...]Dead Men Don’t Spend
September 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment
The Lehman bankruptcy was a much more important event than 9/11. It marked the end of a 60-year credit expansion. Maybe it marked the high water mark for the US Empire, too. And the beginning of the end for the US dollar-based world monetary system.
But the occasion went by yesterday without much notice.
[Read more...]Another Lost Decade
June 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment
An article in The Financial Times yesterday tells Americans they may face a “lost decade,” like the Japanese in the ’90s.
What? We’ve had a lost weekend or two. But how can you lose a whole decade?
But Americans have done it already. Read on…
What’s the hot news today?
[Read more...]The Rising Price of Oil and the Quality of Your Asparagus
May 31, 2011 By Leave a Comment
Well-traveled asparagus…and the US in recession…
Markets were closed in the US yesterday. We didn’t bother to look at what happened outside the US.
We were tired. After traveling to China, Switzerland, England and France…we had run out of gas.
But yesterday, Memorial Day in the USA, gave us a time to fill up the tank.
[Read more...]The True Products of Quantitative Easing
May 31, 2011 By Leave a Comment
While we were traveling around the globe, the data continued to come in. It offered no surprises. Instead, it was more of the same. Housing is in a bitter slump, with prices down more than 30% nationwide and now falling at about 1% per month.
Unemployment remains a problem area. Officially, the unemployment rate is around 9%. But the real rate of joblessness, according to Yale professor Robert Shiller, is closer to 16%. New jobs are being created. But there are not enough of them to keep up with population growth and allow the unemployed to get back to work.
[Read more...]
Evidence of a Downtrend in the US Stock Market
What happened on Friday? A “moment of truth” arrived for Europe. But what is the truth? We’ll have to wait to find out.
The Dow rose 259 points. Gold was up $28.
But who cares? Up, down…up, down… Every day brings more ‘truth.’ But what we want is a truth with legs. We’re not day traders. Not week traders. Not even year traders. We want a long, sure…mega trend. We want the Dow at 900 in 1983. Or gold at 260 in 1998.
[Read more...]