We had a pretty volatile trading day yesterday, with the dollar falling dramatically in early trading but climbing back up through most of the afternoon. Overnight trading has been choppy, and the dollar is trading pretty much right where it was when I headed home last night. It was the volatile Empire Manufacturing data that sent the dollar into a tailspin yesterday morning. An index of manufacturing in the New York region was cut nearly in half, falling from 21.70 in April to a measure of just 11.88 in May. This number is traditionally very volatile, so it shouldn’t have any long-term impact, but it did set the markets in a ‘sell dollar’ mode which continued when the Net TIC flows were released 30 minutes later.
[Read more...]First Quarter GDP Comes In Lower Than Expected
April 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment
This week shaped up to be one of the busiest on record for all of us here that I can remember as the market volatility and plethora of data provided us with endless excitement. As we close the books on April, the dollar saw increased selling pressures with several currencies setting new records, gold and silver trading at or through all time highs, and the euro (EUR) knocking at the door of 1.50. We’ll see if this carries over into May or if there’s some type of circuit breaker, such as Europe’s debt problems, that re-surface in order to keep the dollar from hitting the floor.
[Read more...]New Home Sales Plunge!
August 26, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Well… The chill in the air isn't confined to the cold front that moved through the Midwest this week… The cold front's chilly air has moved over the economic data here in the US and to a lesser extent, the dollar.
The dollar is weaker this morning versus the usual suspects, led by the euro (EUR), which has climbed and clawed its way back to above 1.27; and the commodity currencies look a bit healthier this morning, too. It's all about the awful housing data that had printed two consecutive days this week. I'll get to that in a minute, but first some observations from the Chuck flight deck…
[Read more...]Mixed US Data Keeps the Dollar in a Tight Range
August 18, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Chuck headed on a multi stop cross-country trek to get out to San Francisco today, so he left the Pfennig to me. I think he said he had to fly through Dallas to get over to San Francisco; just one of the joys of no longer being a ‘hub' airport.
There was a plethora of data releases here in the US yesterday, but the numbers offset each other keeping the markets fairly stable. Surprisingly strong industrial production data was offset by weak housing starts. Other data showed that wholesale costs in the US increased in July for the first time in four months, throwing cold water on those warning of deflation. Commodity prices were the main driver of the increases of 4.2% versus last year. The core price index (ex food and energy) was still up 1.5%, slightly higher than economists' projections. The data will quiet those who are warning about falling prices and will likely keep the boys and girls over at the FOMC on a “steady as she goes� course.
[Read more...]US Budget Deficit Forecast Increases
July 26, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Did you hear on Friday that the Federal Budget Office has updated their forecast for the budget deficit this year? What was originally a forecasted deficit of $1.6 trillion has been improved to $1.47 trillion… While that might be considered an improvement it would still be worse than last year's $1.4 trillion deficit, and looking further out, the forecasts get darker and darker.
[Read more...]US Data Beats Estimates… Economic Outlook Still Bad
July 23, 2010 By Leave a Comment
Judgment day has arrived for Euro banks
I will start off this morning's Pfennig with a note from Chuck who is wrapping up his presentations at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium in Vancouver. Chuck will be flying home later this morning, but sent me the following last night before turning in:
[Read more...]Is Jim Rogers Right About the Euro?
June 14, 2010 By Leave a Comment
I arrived in the parking garage across the street from our building – not exactly the best situation for someone that's partially crippled and has a blood clot in their leg, but that's a story for another day… I got out of my car, and said, “Hmmm… Wouldn't it be nice to see the euro trading with a 1.22 handle this morning?â€? Then said, “Nah, it didn't look too good on Friday…â€?
[Read more...]US Jobless Numbers: A Lag in a Lagging Indicator?
February 26, 2010 By Leave a Comment
The markets didn’t hold any real surprises yesterday as they continued to trade in a narrow range throughout the trading day. Overnight, the Asian markets sold the dollar, as good economic data from Japan and some promising data out of Australia convinced traders the global economic recovery is still underway. While Europe and the US continue to focus on the debt crisis in Greece, the Asian region continues to perk up. But I’m getting ahead of myself; let me get back to what happened in the markets yesterday.
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Stay Short!
The global economic backdrop continues to provide many reasons to sell stocks, but very few reasons to buy them — gold stocks being one of the few exceptions.
The weight of US economic data points to a recessionary environment over the next few quarters. Analysts have not cut their 2011 and 2012 earnings estimates far enough to reflect the recent dramatic deterioration in economic conditions.
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