Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
US bonds fell yesterday. The feds borrowed more. The deficit for January was nearly $50 billion. The record for January was hit two years ago $63 billion.
This puts the US on track for a record deficit of $1.5 trillion.
Wait a minute. This is the 5th year after the crisis began. Youd think federal finances would be getting back to normal. And normal means deficits of 2% or 3%, not 10%.
[Read more...]The weekly jobs numbers released yesterday morning showed 25K more people signed up for unemployment last week than the week prior. The number of continuing claims declined slightly, but remains above 4.5 million. The data confirms what everyone outside of CNBC has been saying for quite a while; this is a ‘jobless recovery' (if you can even call it a recovery!) What growth we have had has been spurred by government spending, the private sector just isn't expanding, and won't probably expand for some time.
[Read more...]On Sunday, we celebrated America's independence from Britain.
Having just come from London, it's hard to see what the fuss was all about. The English seem like decent people. The queen still has her dignity. The British government seems no worse than its American counterpart. And David Cameron appears to have a much better idea of what he is doing than the Obama team.
[Read more...]The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 149 points yesterday. CNBC blamed the selloff on a poor home sales report. Seems as good an explanation as any to explain the inexplicable.
Most financial journalists assume that a certain logic and rationality operates minute-by-minute in the financial markets. Stocks go up when they should…and fall when they should – continuously responding to the macro-economic data of the moment.
[Read more...]Its springtime. The temperature is 85 degrees here in Washington. New York is approaching record-breaking temperatures. Global warming is back in business.
The flowers are out. Cherry blossoms are thick on the ground. The grass is yearning for the mower.
Heck, everything is back in business. To hear the media tell it, youd think jobs were picking up…consumer spending too…manufacturing everything.
[Read more...]Lets call it a victory. Despite spending most of yesterdays trading session in the red, the Dow Jones Industrial Average staged a late-day rally to eke out a 42-point gain. Nevertheless, the selloff that started early last week has erased all of the Dows progress since November 9, 2009 a day on which headlines gushed that the Group of 20 nations would continue to save the world by maintaining their economic stimulus efforts. Investors celebrated that news by rallying the Dow 203 points to 10,227 a fresh 13-month high.
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Debt Ceiling Madness
First, we turn to the news. And what do we find? Netscape’s “Money & Business” has this report:
The House on Monday evening passed a bill that would raise the U.S. debt limit by at least $2.1 trillion and cut spending by a similar amount over the next decade. The agreement was reached Sunday night by congressional leaders and President Barack Obama. The Senate is expected to approve it on Tuesday, and it will go to Obama, who has indicated he will sign it.
[Read more...]