Global Market Commentary, Analysis and Investments
Today, traders are celebrating that the U.S. economy added the most jobs in nearly a year. Or so they’re led to believe. Let’s examine the payroll data first:
First, did you notice? Gold shot up $25 on Friday. At this rate, it will be at $1,600 by the end of this week.
Why? The smart money is betting that the feds will keep pushing inflation.
But today, let’s ignore the feds and talk about what’s happening in the economy.
You saw the latest GDP numbers last week. In the first quarter, the economy grew at a 1.8% annual rate, said the estimate. That is equivalent to the average real rate of growth for the US economy since 1925. The only trouble is, this growth isn’t real. It’s counterfeit. It’s phony.
[Read more...]The Dow went up more than 70 points yesterday. The higher it goes, the more dangerous it becomes.
What’s the matter with this downturn? Shouldn’t it lower stock prices? Shouldn’t it empty tables at fancy restaurants? Shouldn’t it close down some of these luxury shops and make it easy to upgrade to business class?
[Read more...]Sometimes, the methods to produce results are counter-intuitive. For example, skillful pruning of grape vines is essential to the production of vineyards, and cutting back a rose bush promotes its growth. Based on experience, we can learn where cutting can lead to growth.
The following statement is at first just as counter-intuitive: A reduction in government spending will not slow job growth. In fact, the experience of the last two years provides compelling evidence that a reduction in government spending will lead to increased employment and output in the US economy.
[Read more...]Who can you trust?
Whoa… Big sell-off in stocks yesterday. The Dow down 242 points. Investors were worried…
…about new explosions in Japanese nuclear plants…
…about Europe’s periphery states on the verge of default…
…about revolutions, demonstrations and civil wars in the oil producing states…
[Read more...]We went to our last summer soiree last night. It took place at a neighbor's chateau, where a large, ancient stone barn had been transformed into a dining room for 100 people.
“We're screwed…so are you…? said a friend.
First, an update from Wall Street: the Dow was unable to sustain a bounce yesterday. It fell 74 points. Gold dropped $3.
[Read more...]Nothing special happened on Friday. The Dow lost 21 points. Gold gained 7, to bring it back over $1,200.
Here at The Daily Reckoning our annoying forecast is that gold will fall. So will stocks.
It's annoying because 1) both have been going up…and 2) we still think you should go with gold anyway.
[Read more...]The Dow rose 44 points yesterday. Gold gained 8 bucks. What to make of it?
One of the advantages of being on the road is that you don't get a whole lot of time to check the news. As the inimitably quotable Mark Twain famously observed, “If you don't read the newspaper, you're uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you're misinformed.?
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US Payrolls Jump Up Thanks in Part to “Ghost Jobs”
The US payroll numbers came in much better than expected on Friday, helping the dollar continue its rebound versus most of the currencies. American employers added 244,000 jobs in April according to the Labor Department, exceeding last month’s revised 221,000 jobs and easily beating economists’ projections. But a separate report showed that the jobless rate climbed to 9% – the first increase since November of last year. Chuck was scratching his head after the release of the jobs data on Friday morning, and sent me this to include in this morning’s Pfennig:
[Read more...]